From the outside, Iowa looks to be solidly red. President Donald Trump won it handily in 2024 and the state has both a Republican governor and a GOP-controlled legislature. But that could change in 2026. On Friday, reports emerged that Senator Joni Ernst had decided, despite pleas from party leaders, not to run again. That would hand Democrats a chance at an open seat. Ernst committed an epic gaffe earlier this summer when she responded to a town hall question on Medicaid cuts — the result of Trump’s budget bill — with an exasperated, “Well we’re all going to die.” She has never recovered politically.
Republican Governor Kim Reynolds, who has been sinking in the polls, also will not run again, leaving another open seat at the top of the midterm ticket.
And last week, Iowa Democrat Caitlin Drey pulled off a dramatic upset for a state Senate seat, winning a deep-red district that Trump carried in three consecutive elections. Even more shocking: It wasn’t close. Drey won 55% of the vote, while her GOP rival got only 44%. Republicans still vastly outnumber Democrats in the Iowa Senate, 33 to 17, but they’ve lost their supermajority; they’ll now need at least one Democrat to confirm nominees. That gives Iowa Democrats a veto power they have not enjoyed in years.
That’s not the first time Iowa Democrats have scored a surprise victory this year. In a January special election, Democrat Mike Zimmer won another special election for the state Senate, defeating his Republican challenger 52% to 48% in a district Trump had won by 21 points.
I guess she was toast anyway.
Iowa used to be a swing state until Trump came along. But something’s obviously happening there. And if it’s happening there it may very well be happening in other states like it, such as North Carolina and Maine. Sherrod Brown’s running again Ohio.
Things can change fast in American politics. Candidate quality matters. Mid-terms favor the out party. Who knows?