It’s happened. We’re shut down. Old addled Trump thinks he’s cancelling transgender surgeries for everyone and Russ Vought is in so much ecstasy he’s speaking in tongues. Here we go.
Dan Pfeiffer says Democrats have a good chance of “winning” this stand-off, at least in the minds of the voters. His reasons:
Shutdowns matter. Thousands of federal employees lose their paychecks with no guarantee of back pay. Government services are curtailed. People’s lives are disrupted. But shutdowns are also political exercises, one of the few points of leverage available to the minority party. For Democrats, this is about drawing a line. Trump has been running roughshod over the government for nine straight months — firing people, closing agencies, and shutting down programs authorized and funded by Congress. At some point, Democrats have to say “enough is enough” and use the tools they have to fight back.
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It’s possible Schumer and Senate Democrats won’t have the spine for this fight. There are already reports they’re looking for an exit. It’s also possible congressional Democrats lack the messaging discipline to win the political argument. But I think Democrats enter this fight on firmer ground than most assume.
1. Polls Show Voters Blame Trump and the GOP
More importantly, 49% of voters in battleground districts blame Trump and Republicans, while just 44% blame Democrats.
Politico reported on a new Morning Consult poll with similar results:
The new Morning Consult poll, shared exclusively with Playbook, reports that 45 percent of voters are more likely to blame Republicans if there’s a shutdown, compared to 32 percent blaming Democrats — a 13-point margin. That split gets wider among independent voters, who are more likely to blame Republicans by a 17-point margin. The poll surveyed 2,202 voters last week.
2. Trump Is Much Weaker Than People Think
There’s a paradox at the heart of Trump: substantively, he’s powerful. Politically, he’s very weak. Trump has weaponized the government in countless ways. With the unanimous support of his party and the avarice and cowardice of business and media elites, he does what he wants, when he wants.
But Trump himself is historically unpopular, pushing an unpopular agenda, and widely seen as failing on the top issue for voters — the cost of living.
He is less popular now than Biden was at the same point in his presidency. His disapproval on inflation and affordability is as bad as Biden’s was in 2024. The only modern president more unpopular at this stage was Donald Trump in 2017.
And Trump’s weakness matters. He is not a persuasive messenger to anyone outside his base. That makes him and his party more vulnerable to being blamed for the shutdown than they may realize.
3. Voters Want the Obamacare Subsidies Continued
Pfeiffer thinks that the focus on the Obamacare subsidies was a weaker hand than if they’d have pushed more on affordability but recognizes that they had a whole bunch of people they needed to bring onboard to have unity on this. I think it also has to do with the fact that there are vulnerable Republicans who are terrified of what their constituents are going to think when they get their health insurance bills and see massive hikes. It’s also going to show up when they do their taxes next spring, just as the election is kicking in. It’s one of the most immediately damaging things they did in the Big Beautiful Bill. So it makes sense to squeeze them on this.
Also:
Still, the Obamacare tax credits are wildly popular. A Kaiser Family Foundation poll in June found that 77% of Americans think Congress should extend the tax credits, while just 22% say they should expire.
The Republicans are leaning heavily on the lie that the Democrats want to extend health care to “illegal aliens.” I’m sure that will work with a good portion of their base. But everyone else isn’t as easily duped.
I think the Republicans would actually be relieved to get rid of this hot potato. But addled old Trump doesn’t really know what’s happening and Vought and some of the zealots want a shutdown for their own reasons. But if there was ever a chance that the Democrats might achieve something for the people and look fairly strong in the process this might be it.
Or not. Pfeiffer says he’s heard rumblings that they’re already looking for a way out so … I’m not putting any money on their willingness to hang tough. But they should.