Admitted pessimist Dan Pfeiffer has some uncharacteristically optimistic words today:
It’s worth remembering that Republicans are defending an incredibly narrow House majority in what’s shaping up to be a very bad political environment for the GOP. Trump’s approval right now is about what it was in 2018, when Republicans lost 40 seats. The economy is slowing, and prices remain high. Even under far better circumstances, the president’s party tends to lose House seats in the midterms
Failing to extend the tax credits could turn 2026 from a good Democratic year into a wave election. You don’t have to take my word for it. Here’s a memo Tony Fabrizio — Donald Trump’s own pollster — wrote earlier this summer:
“While the 2024 outcome for these districts was even, the generic Republican is down 3 points among all registered voters. Among those most motivated to vote — an early indicator of midterm turnout — the Republican is down 7 points. If the Republican candidate lets the premium tax credit expire, the Republican trails the Democrat by 15 points. There is broad bipartisan support for the tax credits and their extension.”
If the tax credits aren’t extended, voters will blame Trump and the Republicans, according to the Kaiser poll.
Donald Trump desperately wants to hold on to the House. It’s why he’s bullied a bunch of Republican states into redrawing congressional districts to find more GOP seats. But even the most aggressive gerrymander wouldn’t stand a chance under the scenario painted by Trump’s own pollster.
I don’t know what’s going to happen but it seems that the Democrats realize they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. Having said that, we are talking about the U.S. Senate where there are always at least a handful of preening posers looking for a way to pretend to be above all this nasty politickin’ and decide to sell-out their own voters. You can see John Fetterman doing it right now. Luckily, they’ll need more than him and so far there have only been a couple who felt the need to show their plucky independence. But at this point the Democrats are winning.
And by the way, Trump is losing on this other important issue as well:
God, I hope that one holds up. What Trump is doing with DHS and now the National Guard in Chicago and Portland is fascist to the core. I’m relieved that Americans aren’t happy about it.