Bracing for REDMAP 2.0
I could have sworn Politico’s landing page earlier framed this story as about REDMAP 2.0. If so, it’s gone. Now the sidebar reads, “GOP risks losing redistricting war if they ignore state races, group warns.” It’s about this new memo from the Republican State Leadership Committee.
“The legislative level truly holds the key to the federal level,” Edith Jorge-Tuñón, president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, said in an interview.
In the Friday memo — which is being shared with GOP donors — Jorge-Tuñón repeatedly hits Democrats for gerrymandering blue states, arguing that they will continue to stretch their margins as much as possible. Republicans, too, have drawn increasingly favorable maps — and fired the first shot in this year’s battle with Texas — shrinking the number of swing House seats that ultimately determine control of the chamber.
State races are a battleground too many armchair progressives shun for higher-profile federal contests. I get it. For some who don’t live this stuff 24/7/365, local races may feel like the kiddie table. The RSLC is not so naive.
Democrats were famously caught flatfooted in state legislative races ahead of the 2010 census. Republicans’ pioneering REDMAP program helped the party flip chambers across the country, all done with the explicit goal of getting a leg up in redistricting. And while Democrats weren’t caught as unprepared this decade, a strong legislative year for Republicans in 2020 also gave the GOP an edge for the post-2020 redistricting.
The architect of REDMAP in 2010, “gerrymandering on steroids,” was from North Carolina. (So is Cleta Mitchell.) And after that, the late Thomas Hofeller suggested that Republicans rig the 2020 census.
The new warning from the RSLC comes as their Democratic counterpart has similarly ramped up its messaging on redistricting as a reason to prioritize legislative races.
“To have a shot at winning and maintaining a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives moving forward, Democrats must reassess our failed federal-first strategy and get serious about winning state legislatures ahead of redistricting,” wrote Heather Williams, the head of Democrats legislative campaign arm, in a July memo obtained by POLITICO.
For readers in states that elect judges, and for those who don’t, ProPublica offers a study of the nationwide shadow N.C. Supreme Court Chief Justice Paul Newby (R) has cast with his maneuvering on redistricting. Newby’s early 2023 decision leveraged a newly seated Republican majority to overturn the previous court’s 2022 ruling that partisan gerrymandering violated North Carolina’s constitution. That court ordered an independent redraw of congressional districts that yielded a 7D-7R delegation after the 2022 election. Until Newby’s conservative majority overturned the precedent:
“We were like, they can’t possibly do this,” said Jeff Loperfido, the chief counsel for voting rights at the Southern Coalition for Social Justice. “Can they revisit their opinions when the ink is barely dry?”
Yes, they can. And yes, they did. Newby handed the U.S. House majority to Republicans, to Speaker Mike Johnson, and to Donald Trump. The N.C. delegation after the 2024 elections split 10R-4D. The GOP-dominated N.C. legislature just last week enacted a new congressional district map aimed at making that 11R-3D.
ProPublica explains:
Few beyond North Carolina’s borders grasp the outsize role Newby, 70, has played in transforming the state’s top court from a relatively harmonious judicial backwater to a front-line partisan battleground since his election in 2004.
Under North Carolina’s constitution, Supreme Court justices are charged with upholding the independence and impartiality of the courts, applying laws fairly and ensuring all citizens get treated equally.
Yet for years, his critics charge, Newby has worked to erode barriers to politicization.
He pushed to make judicial elections in North Carolina — once a national leader in minimizing political influence on judges — explicitly partisan and to get rid of public financing, leaving candidates more dependent on dark money. Since Newby’s allies in the legislature shepherded through laws enacting those changes, judicial campaigns have become vicious, high-dollar gunfights that have produced an increasingly polarized court dominated by hard-right conservatives.
As chief justice, he and courts under him have consistently backed initiatives by Republican lawmakers to strip power away from North Carolina’s governor, thwarting the will of voters who have chosen Democrats to lead the state since 2016. He’s also used his extensive executive authority to transform the court system according to his political views, such as by doing away with diversity initiatives. Under his leadership, some liberal and LGBTQ+ employees have been replaced with conservatives. A devout Christian and church leader, he speaks openly about how his faith has shaped his jurisprudence and administration of the courts.
According to former justices, judges and Republicans seeking to be judicial candidates, Newby acts more like a political operator than an independent jurist. He’s packed higher and lower courts with former clerks and mentees whom he’s cultivated at his Bible study, prayer breakfasts and similar events. His political muscle is backed by his family’s: His wife is a major GOP donor, and one of his daughters, who is head of finance for the state Republican Party, has managed judicial campaigns.
Etc., etc. “Newby declined multiple interview requests from ProPublica and even had a reporter escorted out of a judicial conference to avoid questions.”
When ProPublica emailed questions to Newby’s daughter, the North Carolina Republican Party’s communications director, Matt Mercer, replied with a threat:
“I’m sure you’re aware of our connections with the Trump Administration and I’m sure they would be interested in this matter,” Mercer said in his email. “I would strongly suggest dropping this story.”
Democrats here control the governor’s mansion and several council of state positions, but the GOP legislature after the election handed control of our elections board to the GOP state auditor:
Former North Carolina Republican Party executive director Dallas Woodhouse will oversee county boards of elections in a new role with the State Auditor’s Office, Auditor Dave Boliek announced in an email to county board chairs.
Yeah, local elections matter. The smarmy Woodhouse is an old adversary. We’re bracing for impact.
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