The message from the off-year election is plain. Run with ideas for lowering the cost of living and putting a stop to Trump. It’s not complicated. From Ipsos:
Note that even Republicans are upset about that issue. Yet Trump running around saying that everything is fabulous and he’s fixed all the problems and everyone is happy.
A big component of Mamdani’s appeal was his specific and targeted policies, as well as messaging, around making life more affordable for New Yorkers. The polling shows that Americans are drawn towards those policies. Even policies that are generally considered “progressive” are backed by a majority of independents. The bottom line is that real people are worried about real things—groceries, rent, daily costs, and so on. Without answers, you lose voters.
Regrets, they’ve had a few:
Their conclusion:
Since Donald Trump entered politics, Republicans have historically struggled in elections where his name is not on the ballot. They must figure out a way turn out the low-turnout voters that Trump attracted and win back the gains Trump made among young and non-white voters. In elections where turnout is higher, this might be easier. But it may still be an uphill battle given Americans’ pessimistic views on the economy. Republicans’ short-term success will likely hinge on economic conditions improving – and whether the public gives Republicans credit.
On the other hand, Democrats have made “countering Trump” a big aspect of their appeal. Exit polls show that dissatisfaction with Trump was a key driver in Democratic turnout in this year’s elections. Democrats may be able to count on negative partisanship in 2026, but beyond, Democrats will need to create an identity of their own in a post-Trump political landscape. A populist economic platform aimed at affordability may be one step on the way there.
Yep. But I would also guess the GOP is going to be stuck with their MAGA extremists for at least another presidential cycle and they will prove to be a thorn in any candidates side if they try to distance themselves from it. So Democrats will have to run against Trump’s record to make sure people understand that the Republicans aren’t reverting to sanity any time soon.