Trump is bleeding Independents in all the polls. Even his support among Republicans is starting to erode a bit. Where does that leave us?
After this November’s off-year elections, I argued that the Democrats’ sweep from Georgia to New Jersey wasn’t the result just of Democratic-leaning turnout, but the product of real swings to the left among key voting groups. Two such groups were Latinos and voters who care most about the economy — the latter of which went from backing Trump by over 60 points in 2024 to backing Democratic candidates for governor by roughly 30 points in 2025. Latino-heavy precincts in New Jersey moved left by 50 points.
This week, polls confirmed the Democrats’ rosy position with voters, and even showed a sizable shift toward the party compared to previous data. In one notable survey from Marist College, sponsored by NPR/PBS News, Democrats held a 14-point lead over Republicans in the U.S. House “generic ballot” test (the “generic ballot” is a poll question that asks voters who they would vote for in their local congressional district if the 2026 elections were held today). NPR ran with the headline “Democrats have biggest advantage for control of Congress in 8 years.”
The Marist poll is an outlier, but not the only poll to show a trend toward Democrats this week. Today’s Chart of the Week: Democrats post their best week yet in generic ballot polls for the 2026 midterms.
First, consider the toplines. Since Nov. 13, six national pollsters have released House generic ballot surveys. All of them show Democrats ahead, with margins ranging from D+3 to D+14 and an average of about D+6. That’s a noticeably bluer environment than what we were looking at even a month ago, when Democrats’ edge in most surveys was in the low single digits or non-existent (more on that later).
He notes that, “these aren’t just “friendly” outfits — the list includes everyone from non-partisan firms like YouGov and Verasight to media pollsters, including Marist and Marquette, to Republican consultant shops like Echelon Insights. The data here are from high-quality firms with solid track records of accurately measuring public sentiment.”
So what does it mean?
- The “Trump realignment” among young and Latino voters looks increasingly fragile. The exits in Virginia and New Jersey already suggested that Trump’s gains with these groups were built on economic discontent, not durable ideological change. The new polls are consistent with that story. As the economic narrative has turned against Republicans, these voters have drifted back toward Democrats.
- The November elections really did signal a meaningful shift in the national mood. Whereas some commentators characterized the elections as local contests plagued by weak Republican candidates, the voters who punished Republicans over affordability and Trump’s second-term agenda don’t exist only in the election returns; they appear in national opinion polls, too.
- A D+4 generic ballot in November 2025 is not a guarantee of anything. District maps still favor Republicans, and we’re nearly a year out from the midterms. Economic data, world events, and candidate scandals can all move opinions again. A court has temporarily taken the Republican gerrymander in Texas off the table, but the Supreme Court could reinstate it.
- Normal patterns of midterm backlash should push Democratic numbers up. Historically, the party in control of the White House tends to lose ground in generic ballot polls as the midterms approach. From the previous November to Election Day, the out-party typically gains about 4 points in the generic ballot. That would put Democrats at D+8.2, higher than their vote margin in the 2018 “blue wave” elections.
I’m not holding my breath on anything and I don’t predict anything. But this is good news if only for the fact that it’s making Republicans very nervous about this next year and they’re starting to resist Dear Leader a little bit. After all, the reason they have succumbed to him like a bunch of beaten animals is their fear of losing their seats if he comes out against him. If these numbers hold up, he may be the least of their problems.