More emotional content, please
Democrat Aftyn Behn did not upset Republican Matt Van Epps in Tennessee’s 7th district special election on Tuesday. That does not mean Republicans won’t be upset. Donald Trump won the deep-red district in 2024 by 22 points. Epps held it by only nine even after his party and its leaders spent and campaigned heavily. A 13-point slide.
Ed Kilgore writes that Democrats weighed in for Behn as well:
Democrats heavily backed Behn financially as well. What distinguished this progressive activist from the usual red-district Democrat is that she didn’t have the usual protective coloration of cultural traditionalism or ideological moderation. She campaigned in this southern-fried district with AOC and DNC chairman Ken Martin, and Kamala Harris made her first post-2024 campaign appearance at a GOTV event aimed at helping the candidate. Even Al Gore pitched in. But reputation aside, Behn ran on the same affordability themes that progressive and centrists alike have been embracing, in yet another trial heat for the 2026 midterms. She probably benefited somewhat from frigid election day weather; Democrats were more likely than Republicans to vote early. Overall turnout was exceptionally high for an off-year special election.
“But the relatively tight margin in such a deep-red district nonetheless represents a warning shot about the party’s vulnerabilities heading into the 2026 midterm elections,” The New York Times observes regarding a district drawn to elect Republicans.
Nate Cohn writes:
A 13-point shift may seem extraordinary or jaw-dropping. For Republicans this year, it’s simply the norm. Heading into Tuesday night, Republicans had underperformed Mr. Trump’s showing by an average of 13 points across dozens of state and federal special elections. And while the Republican Party’s problem in special elections is particularly pronounced — in part because Democrats enjoy a major advantage among the most motivated voters — this basic story isn’t new. It has played out for every president over the last two decades.
Cohn observes that the winning presidential candidate’s party has gone on to lose “each of the next five midterms — and four of the next five presidential elections.” Trump’s slide, Cohn believes, is because “like other recent presidents” he has pushed “too far in pursuit of an ideological agenda.” But considering Barack Obama and Joe Biden spent much of their presidencies cleaning up economic messes left over from the prior Republican administrations, it’s not clear what immoderate ideologoical agendas Cohn sees behind Democratic losses during their midterms.
The always upbeat Simon Rosenberg sees the narrowed gap in TN-07 as portending good things for Democrats in 2026:
It is clear now that the national playing field has tilted significantly towards the Dems. We’ve seen it in special elections across the country this year; in the blowout November elections; and now tonight in deep red TN-7. There are 40 House seats held by Republicans who won by 12 points or less, and a double digit point shift in the national map would make the AK, IA, OH and TX Senate races competitive and put the Senate in play.
2026 is clearly shaping up to be a year of opportunity for us and for the pro-democracy movement.
Affordability continues to be a buzzword candidates and the press use as shorthand for the anxiety Americans feel in an economy wracked by a widening gulf between the elite and the rest. I wish Democrats would drop it. “Affordability” speaks to people’s heads when what people feel is more important. The term lacks — What was it Bruce Lee said to his student in Enter the Dragon? — emotional content.
“Don’t think. FEEL! It is like a finger pointing away to the moon.”
Let Trump rail about affordability. It means he’s losing.
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