A lot of people are writing about the beating Trump is taking the polls, his mental decline, the MAGA crack-up, the Democratic resurgence and the emerging defiance of some quarters of the GOP. We all are. But David Corn has written an excellent synthesis of all those trends in this piece on his substack Our Land:
An excerpt:
For over a decade—!!!—Donald Trump has defied political gravity. After descending that Trump Tower elevator surrounded by fake supporters who had been paid to attend his campaign announcement, Trump pulled one disqualifying move after another. He insulted war hero John McCain. He mocked a reporter with a physical disability. He made crass and crude comments. He lied relentlessly. He celebrated fringe players like conspiracy theory–monger Alex Jones. And with each of these misdeeds and missteps, the pundits declared he was kaput. But he wasn’t. Not even after the grab-’em-by-the-pussy videotape.Trump was able to survive gaffes, controversies, and scandals that would blow away any other politician. In part that was because, as one of his early advisers told me, being an asshole was part of his appeal. It was baked into the cake.
How many times since he was first elected president has a commentator said—or you thought—in response to some Trump outrage, no other politicians could get away with this? That includes bear-hugging Vladimir Putin, mismanaging the Covid epidemic (which led to avoidable deaths of tens of thousands of Americans), his first impeachment, his effort to overturn a legitimate election to retain power, his incitement of political violence that aimed to destroy American democracy, and the countless instances of grift and graft he and his clan have perpetrated.It seemed that the rules of politics and public life did not apply to Trump. Yes, he lost the 2020 election, but he resurrected himself—yet again defying the conventional wisdom following the January 6 riot that he was finished politically.
Trump still survives revelations and scandals that would destroy past presidencies—swiping classified documents, paying off a porn star. But the good news is that this does not mean that the political universe has been permanently upended. In recent weeks, there have been signs that political gravity does still exist and that we are not adrift in a cosmos free of all rules.
He says that some of what’s happening is normal political gravity reasserting itself. Movements rarely last long and MAGA is no exception. He provides this vivid example of the fractures within it:
I don’t know if you know who these weirdos all are but take my word for it, they’re important members of the MAGA coalition.
Corn points out that Trump’s hardcore followers will stick no matter what and he guesses they account for about 30-35% which is still a huge number of our fellow Americans. So, he’s coming close to hitting his floor.
Is all this really political gravity reasserting itself or is something more fundamental happening? I don’t know. Anything would be better than living with Trumpian dominance. But I’m hopeful that the shock of what’s happened over the past few years, the vast corruption, the lack of accountability, the flagrant authoritarianism — the worship of that ignorant brute — will end up creating an appetite for serious reform. We’ve seen the dangers.
As I’ve said before, this 2nd Trump nightmare is a roller coaster. I try not to get too excited by the highs or too rattled by the lows. We’re at a high point but we shouldn’t kid ourselves. He can recover.
Still, there’s no doubt that he’s weakening and his coalition is starting to come apart. That’s good news. I’ll take it.
Happy Hollandaise, everyone!