How many times must we learn it?
Two votes. At the risk of putting national readers to sleep, this is a big deal in North Carolina (Axios):
State Senate leader Phil Berger, the most influential Republican in the N.C. General Assembly, trails by just two votes in a closely watched primary on Tuesday against Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, with all precincts reported.
- The race is too close to call and is likely to go to a recount given its razor-thin margin.
Why it matters: A potential Berger loss would change the landscape of Raleigh’s politics and eventually lead to a leadership transition later this year in the Republican-dominated state Senate.
- Berger has wielded broad influence in Raleigh since leading a Republican takeover of the N.C. General Assembly in 2010.
That takeover led to a state gerrymandered to within an inch of its life. Also, battles over redistricting maps and voter ID that reached the U.S. Supreme Court multiple times, a six-month state Supreme Court recount fight, and the infamous “bathroom bill.” Those fights have gone on for a decade and a half.
“We always knew that the potential existed for this to be close,” Berger said Tuesday night. “I think you could say this is close.”
Once local Boards of Election count absentee and provisional ballots, Berger or Page may ask for a recount if either trails by less than 1% of the total vote. Ask state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs what happens next.
NC Newsline adds:
The big-money race came with an endorsement for Berger from President Donald Trump and an avalanche of negative ads. Page, a popular long-tenured sheriff, won handily in the candidates’ home county of Rockingham, but Berger was able to draw close by winning Guilford County precincts, where Page is not as well known.
Berger’s campaign fund and independent political action committees supporting him were on track to spend about $10 million dragging down Page and promoting Berger.
Berger has led the state Senate since 2011, and is one of the most powerful politicians in North Carolina. He has prime responsibility for the state’s rightward turn in tax, environmental, education and other policies. He has been a prolific fundraiser.
Page was first elected Rockingham sheriff in 1998, while Berger has represented the district in the state Senate since 2001.
In 2023, Page and Berger clashed over Berger’s push to allow casinos in rural parts of the state, including Rockingham. Page was a vocal critic of the controversial plan, which Berger later abandoned.
What’s unclear at the moment is how much the erosion of MAGA support for Donald Trump has trickled down to officials like Berger, particularly among the state’s independent (unaffiliated) voters, now the largest tranche of N.C. registrants (39%; Ds and Rs are tied at 30%). Independents hold the key to election results in November both here and elsewhere.
I lose sleep over independent voters. N.C. Democrats lost state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley’s seat in 2020 by 401 votes. They barely hung onto state Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs’s seat in 2024 by 734 votes. Now the infamous state Sen. Phil Berger risks losing his state Senate seat by a handful of votes. These squeakers are becoming routine. We expect Republicans trying to win in Republican-dominated courts what they lose at the ballot box to become routine. And that’s after layer upon layer of GOP voter-suppression legerdemain fails to rig elections in their favor.
Democrats do a pretty repectable job of turning out their voters in this state. Where we fail is in turning out friendly UNAffiliateds in the right places. We can’t squeeze enough blood from the Democratic base to overcome an UNA vote that in 2024 went 54% for Donald Trump, even if they turned out 6% less than Democrats. We have to make up the difference with blue UNA votes we’re leaving on the table in our urban counties.
Michael Bitzer of Old North State Politics finds them in early voting perhaps moving in our direction:
Early voting totals have surpassed both the 2022 midterm primary and the 2024 presidential primary at the same point in the calendar. That alone makes this cycle notable. But the real story is not simply about aggregate numbers — it is about who is voting, which ballot they are pulling, and how those choices compare to recent cycles.
The top-line figure suggests heightened engagement. Yet beneath that surface lies a far more revealing set of dynamics: a Democratic primary outperforming recent benchmarks, an unusually strong Unaffiliated tilt toward the Democratic ballot, and a geographic pattern that reinforces the state’s now-familiar urban–suburban–rural divide.
Bitzer observes:
Democrats appear to have generated disproportionate early energy, both among registered partisans and among Unaffiliated voters. The fact that more than half of Unaffiliated voters chose the Democratic ballot — reversing the traditional “go where the action is” pattern — is one of the cycle’s most intriguing developments. Whether that reflects competitive dynamics, ideological sorting, or strategic crossover voting will require deeper post-election analysis.
Moral? Assume nothing and take nothing and no one for granted. Every vote counts.