“It’s about trends” — former Sen. Claire McCaskill
Signs don’t vote, say campaign veterans when anxious partisans freak out over seeing large numbers of opponents’ signs around the neighborhood. On the other hand, they can be an indication of how the neighborhood is trending. Right now, “signs” are trending Joe Biden’s way.
President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump 50 – 44 percent in a head-to-head matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Wisconsin released today.
Democrats (97 – 2 percent) and independents (50 – 43 percent) back Biden, while Republicans (95 – 3 percent) back Trump.
CNN describes 6 points as “a slim lead.” Explain that one.
CNN: A new poll was just released showing President Biden leading Donald Trump in the key state of Wisconsin by 6 points pic.twitter.com/o7Usnm8v0k
The race is too close to call with third party candidates included in Quinnipiac’s accounting.
On MSNBC, former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) was measuredly optimistic. Individual polls are not important. “It’s about trends.” And right now, things are trending Biden’s way.
A new poll by a conservative, highly-rated, conservative Arizona-based pollster Data Orbital has Biden up 1 and Gallego up 4. It is the first time Biden has led in an Arizona poll since June, 2023.
Biden is ahead of Trump by 0.1 percentage points. The president is polling at 45 percent support to Trump’s 44.9 percent, based on DDHQ’s average of 685 polls pitting the two against each other in a likely 2024 match-up.
In Wisconsin, Biden is hitting back hard on Trump’s golden-shovel event with Foxconn that underperformed bigly.
Facts don’t matter in MAGAstan, so border crossings being down may not either. Nevertheless (Catherine Rampell, Washington Post):
Psst. Have you heard? Illegal border crossings are down. Way down.
From the last four months of 2023 to the first four months of 2024, illegal crossings at the U.S. southwestern border fell a whopping 40 percent, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Such crossings usually rise in the early months of a calendar year, as the weather warms, so this number might even understate the turnaround.
Two takeaways from this development: First, the standard GOP (and media) talking points about the “border crisis” are woefully out of date. Second: Anyone who cares about border security should support a presidential candidate with (ahem) good diplomatic relationships.
“By what right does a judge put a former president in prison?” asks former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Why … why, that judge was appointed! Donald Trump appointed nearly twice as many judges in four years as Barack Obama did in eight, but who’s counting? Newt’s on a roll.
Juan Merchan, the judge overseeing Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan, was born in Columbia. And we know what Team Trump thinks of immigrants and immigrant judges, even if they’re not immigrants. Now this Columbian-born, immigrant judge appointed by that notorious yankee state of New York may send Trump to jail for contempt of court. The effrontery!
“By what right?” asks Gingrich of Georgia does a judge dare apply the same law made for commoners to the MAGA king?
Newt Gingrich: An appointed corrupt judge who I believe is about to put Trump in prison… By what right does a judge put a former president in prison? Just ask yourself, what would it be like to be Trump in prison in New York? @Acyn pic.twitter.com/3iXi62Vhib
— The Intellectualist (@highbrow_nobrow) May 7, 2024
Jon Stewart recently suggested that if Republicans are going to insist on such “monarchy shit” they should at least signify by wearing red coats.
Gingrich is hardly alone in assailing the heirs of Blackstone and equal justice. Trump and leading Republicans are refusing to commit to accepting November’s election results … again (Washington Post):
The question has become something of a litmus test, particularly among the long list of possible running mates for Trump, whose relationship with his first vice president, Mike Pence, ruptured because Pence resisted Trump’s pressure to overturn the 2020 election.
In a vivid recent example, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) was pressed at least six times in a TV interview Sunday on whether he would accept this November’s results. He repeatedly declined to do so, only saying he was looking forward to Trump being president again.
He continued to evade the question even as the interviewer, NBC News’s Kristen Welker, reminded him that a “hallmark of our democracy is that both candidates agree to a peaceful transfer of power.”
But that was before the election of Barack Obama. Trump, the Post reports, has repeatedly suggested that political violence could again ensue if he does not win in November. Followers should follow their hearts, Trump recommended, not the vote counts, to decide whether to challenge election results. In Georgia, Republicans just made that easier than ever.
The Post again:
The refusal to commit to accept elections results is “deeply concerning,”said Steven Levitsky, a government professor at Harvard University who studies democracy around the world. “Accepting the results of elections is in effect the cardinal rule of democracy. It is the first rule of democratic politics. If a major party is not willing to accept defeat in elections, democracy cannot be stable.”
Yes, but democracy means your side can lose, so democracy is now a bad word among Republicans. Elections are illegitimate if their presidential candidates lose, even if Republicans on the same ballots win. Washington State Republicans recently called on their members to stop using the word democracy and to replace it at every opportunity with some version of republic:
“We are devolving into a democracy, because congressmen and senators are elected by the same pool,” was how one GOP delegate put it to the convention. “We do not want to be a democracy.”
Washington Republicans started a trend, it seems. Wisconsin Rep. Glenn Grothman (R) just raised republic in non sequitur remarks on the House floor. He’s implying something he doesn’t have the guts to speak plainly.
The is a perfect illustration of the difference between the two parties. Dumbed-down platitudes and slogans versus facts, history and reality. Unfortunately, this country has too many people that consume a steady diet of the former and none of the latter. https://t.co/EsACtUsRWk
We've been talking about the Republican rejection of democracy for a while now, but to see and hear them explicitly state it is still unnerving. pic.twitter.com/2DNCzPnCER
Q: You were with World War II vets in their 90s today. Did you consider wearing a mask when you were with them?
Trump: The wind was blowing so hard in such a direction that if the plague ever reached them, I'd be very surprised. It could’ve reached me too.… pic.twitter.com/dpQ3rSPmhl
Q: You were with World War II vets in their 90s today. Did you consider wearing a mask when you were with them?
Trump: The wind was blowing so hard in such a direction that if the plague ever reached them, I’d be very surprised. It could’ve reached me too. You didn’t worry about me, you’re only worried about them
He is a monster.
four years ago today, the President of the United States expressed his deep conviction that covid testing caused covid and not, you know, the virus 👇 https://t.co/GYp4ko5GWV
FreedomWorks, the once-swaggering conservative organization that helped turn tea party protesters into a national political force, is shutting down, according to its president, a casualty of the ideological split in a Republican Party dominated by former President Donald Trump.
“We’re dissolved,” said the group’s president, Adam Brandon. “It’s effective immediately.”
FreedomWorks’ board of directors voted unanimously on Tuesday to dissolve the organization, Brandon said. Wednesday will be the last workday for the group’s roughly 25 employees, though staffers will continue to receive paychecks and health care benefits for the next few months.
The development brings to a close a period of turmoil for the organization. FreedomWorks laid off 40 percent of its staff in March of 2023, and as a result of a drop in fundraising, its total revenue has declined by roughly half, to about $8 million, since 2022, Brandon said.
In an exclusive interview with POLITICO Magazine, Brandon said the decision to shut down was driven by the ideological upheaval of the Trump era.
After Trump took control of the conservative movement, Brandon said, a “huge gap” opened up between the libertarian principles of FreedomWorks leadership and the MAGA-style populism of its members. FreedomWorks leaders, for example, still believed in free trade, small government and a robust merit-based immigration system. Increasingly, however, those positions clashed with a Trump-aligned membership who called for tariffs on imported goods and a wall to keep immigrants out but were willing, in Brandon’s view, to remain silent as Trump’s administration added $8 trillion to the national debt.
“A lot of our base aged, and so the new activists that have come in [with] Trump, they tend to be much more populist,” Brandon said. “So you look at the base and that just kind of shifted.”
This same split was creating headaches in other parts of the organization as well. “Our staff became divided into MAGA and Never Trump factions,” Brandon said in an internal document reviewed by POLITICO Magazine. It also impacted fundraising.
So sad. They made common cause with a bunch of patriarchal religious fanatics and racists in order to get their tax cuts for the wealthy and look what it got them.
The excellent Bolts Magazine is doing something called “Ask Bolts” allowing readers to ask questions of experts on various issues facing the electorate:
Elections law expert Josh Douglas is the author of The Court v. the Voters: The Troubling Story of How the Supreme Court Has Undermined Voting Rights, a new book that is set for release next week. The book dives deeply into high-profile cases that have undercut U.S. democracy in recent decades, from Citizens United to Shelby County.
Now he has agreed to answer questions from Bolts readers.
What do you want to know about how the Supreme Court has affected voting rights in recent decades? Ask him anything about how the court has upended the way states run their elections, how the damage can be repaired, and how the justices may end up further shaping democracy in 2024. And remember: No question is too in the weeds for Bolts!
We’ll pitch them to him by May 10 and write up his responses
Click over to fill out the form if you have questions and hopefully we’ll see the answers!
Trump: Declares nine different "Infrastructure Weeks," derails them all with various antics and scandals, fails to sign any major legislation because everyone in Congress hates him.
Biden: Negotiates with Congress to pass a bipartisan $1 trillion infrastructure bill.
Today Biden will be in Wisconsin announcing a major new Microsoft data center on the spot where Trump promised to bring a new Foxconn plant that never opened.
Trump will probably take credit for the Microsoft plant and people will probably believe him even though he’s been out of office for 3 and a half years.
One of the most inane of all MAGA Republican claims is the insistence by militant right wingers and insurrectionists that they are pacifists. Take, for instance, Marjorie Taylor Greene:
MAGA rapper DVS 7.0 / Shawn Olivo, a speaker at Marjorie Taylor Greene’s indictment protest rally, attacked a mobile COVID testing station in 2021.
During the rally, Marjorie Taylor Greene claimed, “Democrats are the party of violence” and Republicans “are the party of peace.” pic.twitter.com/DETE68di8u
Or Trump who often brags that he had no wars while he was president (unless you count Afghanistan and Syria and large numbers of drone strikes in various places.)
TRUMP: “We were respected all over the world. The best economy we’ve ever had. Everything was good. No wars, defeated ISIS, no wars, we had no nothing, but we were respected all over the world. Now it is a disgrace.” pic.twitter.com/4CdZhZuVto
They aren’t the only ones. And I think we can all agree that these are not people anyone would normally describe as flower children regardless of the fact that NY Times columnist once fatuously described the bellicose Trump as “Donald the Dove.” These are the most contentious people in politics and they only get away with proclaiming such nonsense because they have mastered the tactic of getting people to believe up is down and black is white.
In recent days we’ve seen this ridiculous argument deployed by members of congress to justify their refusal to provide military aid to Ukraine as if fights off the Russian invasion of their country. Some, like Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance have asserted that Ukraine can’t possibly win so it’s a waste of time anyway. Others said it’s all Joe Biden’s fault because it wouldn’t have happened if he hadn’t stolen the election. (Trump is the one who trots that out most often.) And then there’s just the general Russophilia in the MAGA crowd. But the most common argument usually goes that it’s none of our business if Russia and Ukraine are fighting over their borders especially since we have our own border problems to deal with.
In other words they equate the movement of migrant refugees to the US southern border with the Russian military moving into Ukraine and killing vast numbers of people with the aim of taking over the country. You see, asylum seekers, many of them women and children arriving with nothing more than the clothes on their backs, are little different than soldiers armed with tanks and bombs. As much as the Republicans want nothing more than peace in our time, they reluctantly admit that America has to defend itself against this marauding horde.
One of the main “weapons” these invaders are allegedly using is their cultures. This would be the Great Replacement Theory, originally promulgated by a French intellectual to gin up European resistance to middle eastern refugees. Here in America, the story goes that they are coming to ruin our great culture (taco trucks on every corner!) and vote for Democrats (even though they can’t and don’t even try.)
According to many of those same hysterical Republicans many of these migrants are actually terrorists. Trump himself has said that he is “100% certain” that we will have a terrorist attack because “you cannot forget that the same people that attacked Israel are right now pouring at levels that nobody can believe into our beautiful U.S.A. through our totally open border.”
But that’s not all. The MAGA right believes that the fentanyl crisis is actually a war being waged by the cartels and fought by migrants bringing it over the border. Despite the arguments by the experts at the Department of Homeland Security that 95% of the drugs smuggled in from Mexico are in vehicles at legitimate border crossings, these armchair generals are sure that many more drugs are brought into the country between the ports of entry by shadowy armed figures dressed in camouflage who are evading the border patrol. (As you know, the Senate passed a bill to hire more people to work the border but Donald Trump ordered the House not to vote for it because it would give Joe Biden a “win” so that was that.)
The fentanyl crisis is real, no one denies that. But the US has been waging a “war on drugs” for decades. (Talk about a “forever war”) Some of it was just political sloganeering, along the lines of “Just Say No,” Nancy Reagan’s 1980s anti-drug bumper sticker. But there has been a lot of money spent over the years and some very dubious policies that often did more harm than good. One such policy was Plan Colombia a military initiative adopted in the last years of the Clinton administration to combat cocaine trafficking and the Colombian cartels. It didn’t work but then using the American military or the CIA to fight a “war on drugs” never does.
But that won’t stop the hawks like “Donald the dove” from doing it anyway. They may be peaceniks but they are champing at the bit for a war of their own and it looks like Mexico will be their enemy of choice. Naturally they won’t actually declare war. America doesn’t really do that anymore. No, the plan is to send in Special Forces to “take out” the cartels.
This has been on the back burner for a while but as Rolling Stone reported this week, Donald Trump is talking about it quite seriously as something he plans to do very early in his administration should he win in November:
The former president has not presented specific details in public about these plans — for example, how many U.S. troops he’d be willing to send into sovereign Mexican territory. But, the three sources tell Rolling Stone, in conversations with close MAGA allies, including at least one Republican lawmaker, Trump has privately endorsed the idea of covertly deploying — with or without the Mexican government’s consent — special-ops units that would be tasked with, among other missions, assassinating the leaders and top enforcers of Mexico’s powerful and most notorious drug cartels.
You may recall that former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper wrote that he thought Trump was joking when he told him that he wanted to use patriot missiles to destroy the fentanyl labs his first administration. (This was in 2020 and he still didn’t know that patriot missiles are surface to air missiles but whatever.) So I suppose we should be glad that he’s dropped that idea as far as we know. But this idea of sending in the special forces has since then caught on like wildfire in the GOP.
There are several bills to declare the cartels terrorists, which Trump wanted to do during his first term, and authorize the use of force to take military action. Former DHS official Ken Cuccinelli wrote a policy paper that calls for a “defensive war”against Mexico justified on the grounds of drug trafficking and, significantly, migration which is cited often. It says that if these special forces deployments aren’t entirely successful the president should send in “elements of the Marines, Army, Navy, Air Force and Coast Guard.”
All the Senators and congressmen who are agitating for these actions insist that this isn’t an invasion but their proposed legislation sure sounds like it’s authorizing one. It says the president can use “all necessary and appropriate force” against “foreign nations” if they’ve “trafficked fentanyl” into the US. What could go wrong?
Needless to say, the Mexican leadership doesn’t see it that way and one must assume the Mexican people wouldn’t either. The MAGA leaders, on the other hand, see it as an American prerogative, similar to Russia invading Ukraine for its own purposes. Mexico is the weaker country and so must capitulate and do whatever the stronger US demands or suffer the consequences. The fact that Mexico is our biggest and most important trading partner is irrelevant since the movement doesn’t believe in foreign trade anyway. The fact that they are an ally and neighbor just makes it all the more enticing.
This is what the MAGA “peace movement” is really all about: might makes right. And they are itching to put it into action.
By 11 my time (plus-5 from ET), it had gone viral, with 200k views, 47 QTs, 4.4k likes, 1.6k RTs, and 300 responses.
The post is a good way to start thinking about the information economy that led us to a place where a Republican judge helps delay accountability for stealing nuclear documents and storing them in a closet normally storing campaign swag. This information economy creates an environment in which a former prosecutor like Aileen Cannon either believes, or claims to believe, outlandish claims of bias and ill-treatment solely because career national security officials — rebranded by Trump as the Deep State — did their job.
The RWers were pissed, as she notes.
This kind of viral response on Xitter is the point — right wingers have deliberately stoked such toxic viral responses for years. This is the kind of “engagement” Xitter’s billionaire owner has chosen to foster.
The point is not rational discussion, but instead the replacement of it with brainless mob-think, a mob-think designed to reinforce unquestioning partisan identity, a mob-think designed to drown out rational consideration of what it means that Judge Cannon has intervened in this way.
The RW propaganda network, she notes, has plowed the earth for growing conspiracies for decades now, conspiracies that provide cover for Cannon to entertain:
That Walt Nauta, who doesn’t claim to have sorted through any documents, must have the ability to sort through classified documents
That because the document investigation, which included crimes in DC, started in DC, and used DC SCIFs for the investigation, it’s proof that Jack Smith was deliberately attempting to bypass SDFL
That because Mark Meadows and Pat Philbin got the White House involved in document response, it’s proof that Biden improperly intervened
That even though multiple Trump-friendly witnesses testified that Trump didn’t even know Tom Fitton’s Clinton socks theory until 2022, he should be able to argue to jurors he applied it in 2021
That because NARA informed DOJ about classified documents, the same way they did with Joe Biden, it’s proof that NARA are part of the prosecution team as opposed to the victim
That because Trump’s surveillance system uses difficult software and one of the defense lawyers only uses an iPad, prosecutors have failed to meet discovery obligations
That Trump has immunity to steal nuclear documents that he couldn’t even declassify on his own
These are all, individually and collectively, crazy. It’s unclear whether Cannon truly believes them or simply doesn’t care. She has chosen to treat Trump’s claims according to the reality his propaganda bubble has created rather than the actual facts before her.
A lot of the responses to my Tweet were lefties imagining that Jack Smith has some kind of button he can press to get Aileen Cannon replaced; he doesn’t.
But even if he did, it wouldn’t solve the problem. Because the problem before us is that Trump’s mob and his judges have been trained to believe that applying any law to him amounts to a two-tiered system of justice by a very comprehensive propaganda machine.
Trump’s propaganda machine has drowned out facts and replaced it with grievance.
And until something starts cutting through that grievance, mere trials aren’t going to fix this.
The MAGA king can do no wrong. No guardrails can stop him. No laws can bind him. No walls can hold him.
Tuesday was another bad one for Donald Trump, Boy King of the Red Hats. It ended in Indiana with Trump’s victory in the Republican primary. The former insurrectionist-in-chief won handily against South Carolina’s Nikki Haley who, Politico reports, “cleaned up in the suburbs.”
A zombie Haley candidacy continued to punch above its weight in the Trumpiest of states: The former South Carolina governor is on track to break 20 percent for the first time since she dropped out of the race two months ago.
Trump may have won Indiana’s 58 delegates, but Haley “posted above-30-point performances in places like Marion County, home to Indianapolis, and affluent Hamilton County, its suburb to the north.”
Indiana is sure to go into the Trump column in November. But in a tight presidential contest, Trump cannot afford to lose even a fraction of Republican base voters who turn out for primaries. As one Twitter user observed, if President Joe Biden had lost 22 percent to a candidate no longer in the race in a deep blue state, it would be front page news.
Indeed, there would calls for Biden to drop out of the presidential contest, renewed speculation about a brokered convention, commentary about Democrats in disarray, etc.
Wow. This is terrible for Trump.
He lost more than 21% of the Indiana Republican primary vote to a candidate who dropped out months ago. pic.twitter.com/g66k7361Dc
That’s how Tuesday ended for Trump. Earlier, he faced testimony from adult film actress Stormy Daniels in his Manhattan criminal trial for falsifying business records and election interference. Digby covered that here and here. Coverage of the trial was, well, everywhere.
For his part, Trump was lucky not to have been thrown in jail for contempt exhibited inside the courtroom:
In a private conversation on Tuesday with prosecutors and Donald Trump’s lawyers, the judge overseeing the former president’s hush-money trial rebuked him for “cursing audibly” during Stormy Daniels’s testimony.
New York Supreme Court Justice Juan Merchan said Trump’s behavior might have the effect of intimidating Daniels — who was testifying as a key witness in the case — and threatened to hold him in contempt of court once again.
“I understand that your client is upset at this point, but he is cursing audibly, and he is shaking his head visually, and that’s contemptuous,” Merchan told Trump’s lawyer Todd Blanche. “It has the potential to intimidate the witness, and the jury can see that.”
Trump’s one other lucky break Tuesday was a decision in Florida by U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon to delay indefinitely Trump’s trail on dozens of felony charges for willful retention of national defense information.
“Honey bunch”
The MAGA cult was unusually restless over at Elon Musk’s Cyber-Twitter on Tuesday. One gusss as to what had them stirred up more than usual. A 60-year-old, married, “weird” “orange turd” being spanked on his big bottom by a 27-year-old woman he called “honey bunch” (what century is he living in?) and reminded him of his daughter. Multiple court reporters commented on the “ick” factor in Daniels’ testimony about her one sexual encounter with Donald Trump in 2006. He didn’t use a condom, she said, after she’d explained that she worked expressly for her production firm because they required condom use.
Cultists may believe whatever lie Trump tells them, and that his criminal trial is a setup by the Biden administration, but they listened nevertheless. And they vented.
“Joe Biden is a worldwide fucking cartoon,” tweeted one.
“The only man who can make America great again,” posted another above a photo of Trump.
“Typical NAZI Democrat lies and propaganda,” read a third.
“Biden and democrats are always lying,” read another.
