“It’s about trends” — former Sen. Claire McCaskill
Signs don’t vote, say campaign veterans when anxious partisans freak out over seeing large numbers of opponents’ signs around the neighborhood. On the other hand, they can be an indication of how the neighborhood is trending. Right now, “signs” are trending Joe Biden’s way.
President Joe Biden leads former President Donald Trump 50 – 44 percent in a head-to-head matchup, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of registered voters in Wisconsin released today.
Democrats (97 – 2 percent) and independents (50 – 43 percent) back Biden, while Republicans (95 – 3 percent) back Trump.
CNN describes 6 points as “a slim lead.” Explain that one.
The race is too close to call with third party candidates included in Quinnipiac’s accounting.
On MSNBC, former Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) was measuredly optimistic. Individual polls are not important. “It’s about trends.” And right now, things are trending Biden’s way.
Simon Rosenberg (Hopium Chronicles):
A new poll by a conservative, highly-rated, conservative Arizona-based pollster Data Orbital has Biden up 1 and Gallego up 4. It is the first time Biden has led in an Arizona poll since June, 2023.
The Hill’s average shows Biden gaining strength:
President Biden is leading former President Trump in polls for the first time since October, according to The Hill/ Decision Desk HQ’s (DDHQ) latest average of polls.
Biden is ahead of Trump by 0.1 percentage points. The president is polling at 45 percent support to Trump’s 44.9 percent, based on DDHQ’s average of 685 polls pitting the two against each other in a likely 2024 match-up.
In Wisconsin, Biden is hitting back hard on Trump’s golden-shovel event with Foxconn that underperformed bigly.
“Inflation down. Crime down. Border crossings down,” Mehdi Hasan notes. The GOP is going to need another bogeyman. Maybe another “migrant caravan”?
Facts don’t matter in MAGAstan, so border crossings being down may not either. Nevertheless (Catherine Rampell, Washington Post):
Psst. Have you heard? Illegal border crossings are down. Way down.
From the last four months of 2023 to the first four months of 2024, illegal crossings at the U.S. southwestern border fell a whopping 40 percent, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Such crossings usually rise in the early months of a calendar year, as the weather warms, so this number might even understate the turnaround.
Two takeaways from this development: First, the standard GOP (and media) talking points about the “border crisis” are woefully out of date. Second: Anyone who cares about border security should support a presidential candidate with (ahem) good diplomatic relationships.
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