Who are the swingers?
by Tom Sullivan
MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki last night reviewed polling by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the Cook Political Report on which major party swing voters favor at this early stage of the 2020 contests. They find 3 in 10 fall into that general category. The random telephone sample of 2,402 adults ages 18 and older included both cell phones and land lines and was weighted to balance for national demographics. The margin of error is +/- 3 percent.
Donald Trump: Probably vote for Trump – 9%
Democrat: Probably vote for Democrat – 13%
Only about half of those 3 in 10 (16% of all voters) are truly persuadable, the poll cautions. The polling was complete prior to the mass shootings in El Paso, Texas and Dayton, Ohio.
How do they break down on key issues (again, at this early stage of the 2020 contests)?
Climate Change
Favor Republicans – 22%
Favor Democrats – 59%
Health Care
Favor Republicans – 32%
Favor Democrats – 50%
Immigration
Favor Republicans – 44%
Favor Democrats – 49%
Economy
Favor Republicans – 48%
Favor Democrats – 35%
The polling also identifies how many among those 3 in 10 did not vote in 2016 and 2018. They are younger and more moderate:
Nearly one-fourth of swing voters say they didn’t vote in either the 2016 presidential election (24%) or in the 2018 election (22%). A slightly larger share of Democrat swing voters (33%) say they didn’t vote in the 2016 election than both independents (23%) or Republicans (21%).
But key to determining 2020 outcomes is how the younger cohort of this group will vote — if they vote — in 2020. They are less engaged in politics and less likely to believe the outcome in 2020 matters.
As Digby noted earlier this year:
Democrats win when they embrace the future with optimism and energy. All the Democratic presidents of my lifetime won on that basis. From JFK to Carter to Clinton to Obama, it was always about aspiration for progress not a retreat to the past. These numbers speak to the opening for another successful presidential race if the Democrats choose someone who can carry that message.
The future is Democratic and under-45. The share of swing voters under 50 is 58 percent. This polling points to what issues might get them to care enough about their futures to turn out in November 2020.