Contrary to the conventional wisdom, this poll finds that the dip in overall approval has nothing to do with COVID. The media’s hysteria over the Afghanistan withdrawal in August did its work:
Here are some other findings:
And this …. oy:
Yes, it’s Democrats deserting the ship that caused much of the slippage in Biden’s approval rating. So typical. Dan Pfeiffer has some words for elected officials who are tempted to do the same:
Political panic is an unfortunate and frequent attribute among vulnerable Congressional Democrats. At the first sign of political trouble for the president, they tend to run for the wings — looking for opportunities to distance themselves. Some Democrats — like former Senator Mark Udall — will leave their state rather than appear on camera with their president. This sort of behavior is an article of faith to mediocre political consultants who have yet to wake up and adjust their approach or reflect on the fact that the ‘90s are over.
Presidential approval is highly correlated with midterm success. In other words, the more popular the president, the better his party will do in the midterm elections. Therefore, criticizing the president to prove your independence fuels the narrative of a weakened president. Weakness makes our chances of winning reelection worse, not better.
It’s pretty simple — Democrats that want to win reelection need to adopt a strategy that strengthens Biden.
Biden’s approval ratings likely need to be above 50 to give Democrats a fighting shot at keeping the House and expanding our Senate majority. The good news is that raising Biden’s approval is achievable. Per the Navigator poll, the bulk of the drop is coming from Democrats — a group that is looking for a reason to come home.
It’s difficult to think of a better way to please these Democratic voters than passing Joe Biden’s big, bold, popular economic agenda. With control of the House and Senate, there is literally nothing Republicans can do to stop it. Our fate is in our hands. This is why Manchin’s op-ed is so concerning. As Jonathan Chait wrote in New York Magazine:
The danger is that this pause sets off a cycle of failure. Wealthy interests are only belatedly mobilizing against the bill now. As Republican lobbyist Liam Donovan notes, the Democrats’ best chance is to move as fast as possible. Delay creates the impression of dysfunction, making Biden and Congress less popular, in turn reducing the popularity of any bill they pass, in turn making Congress more reluctant to support it. Even if Manchin doesn’t want to destroy Biden’s presidency, he may do so by setting off a vortex of failure he loses the ability to escape.
There will be intraparty debates about what makes it into the Build Back Better bill — as there should be. But one lesson to take from the passing of the Affordable Care Act is that how a bill passes matters almost as much as if it passes. A series of nasty intraparty fights, special interest giveaways, and side deals will knock some of the sheen off this much-needed victory. If — and hopefully when — Joe Biden signs the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal and a large-scale jobs and families plan it will be a historic policy transformation. A progressive triumph in the works for more than a decade. Let’s rally behind the president and work with a common purpose for our common political interests.
We can’t afford these games right now. If these people don’t use common sense and lose the congress, the Biden agenda is dead and we are probably looking at a second Trump term in 2025. As Biden would say, “come on, man.”