Amy Walter of the Cook Report makes an interesting observation about the midterms. She starts off making the usual observations about how the Democratic coalition is falling apart because Black and Latino men are unhappy and moving to the Republicans. It’s not a majority by any means, but it’s substantial enough to cause some serious heartburn among Democrats and force them to re-evaluate their approach.
Having said all that, when it comes to the midterms there is this:
Over the last few years, college-educated voters — more specifically, white college-educated voters — have become reliable Democratic voters. In fact, recent polls from Quinnipiac, CNN and Marist show Pres. Biden’s job approval rating anywhere from 11 to 19 points better among white college-educated voters than his overall approval rating. For example, Biden’s overall job approval rating in the Quinnipiac poll was 37 percent to 52 percent unfavorable. But, among white college-educated voters, Biden was in positive territory at 50 percent approve to 46 percent disapprove.
This could give Democrats a boost, even in a not-so-great political environment. Lakshya Jain, a software engineer and contributor to Sabato’s Crystal ball, found that this “educational advantage” would help most in states that are whiter than average, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire; all of which are holding Senate contests next year. “Extrapolating from past electorates,” Jain writes, “Democrats may begin with an electorate that is anywhere between 1-3 points more favorable than 2020 in terms of presidential lean in these states. For instance, New Hampshire, which was Biden +7.2 in 2020, could see a Biden +9 electorate, given that state’s exceptionally large share of white voters.”
I realize that older, white, college educated voters are not the group that most younger Democrats are most interested in cultivating. But the Democratic Party is extremely diverse and if you want to look at it in a positive way, these older white people are voting as allies of Black and Latino women (as well as the entire working class and poor who will benefit materially from the Democrats policy agenda.) You’ve got to be able to cobble together a coalition in our system and every vote helps.
By the way, Biden and Trump split the baby boom voters. That’s a big deal since people over 60 have generally voted for the GOP in big numbers. The Baby Boom is a massive generation. If the Dems are appealing to half of them, that’s good news. For a lot of reasons.