There’s a new meme circulating on the right which says that Trump was unpredictable which made the rest of the world fear him — you know, the good old “madman theory.” It’s easy to see why people might think that since Trump is a dolt who had no idea what he was doing. But the truth is the opposite. All the world’s despots had his number from the beginning:
In the realm of foreign relations, Trump was entirely predictable. There was a simple playbook for foreign leaders: Flatter Trump, tell him what he wanted to hear, and he would roll over for you.
Look at his love affair with Kim Jong-Un.
Look at him giving Xi Jinping the go ahead for concentration camps just so long as he could have a trade “deal” to announce.
Look at the Helsinki Summit, where he took Vladimir Putin’s side against his own intelligence apparatus.
And in just about every case involving the use of force—the killing of Soleimani being the exception—Trump backed down militarily. Even going so far as to falsely dismiss injuries to U.S. troops in order to avoid having to retaliate against an aggressor
So why is Putin pushing into Ukraine now? Not everything in the world is about Donald Trump and Putin has been playing a very long game.
But if I had to guess what Trump’s influence on Putin was, I’d say:
Putin realized that he could get much of he wanted from Trump for free. Trump was even talking about pulling out of NATO—which is Putin’s endgame. Why do anything that might jeopardize the free gifts Trump was giving him?
On the other hand, once Biden came to power and it was clear that the relationship would be more adversarial, Putin figured that he might as well go on offense and take his lumps in pursuit of the strategic objectives that could only be achieved by force.
Who needs aggression when you have Donald Trump doing your job for you?