Of all the graphs & charts I’ve done over the past couple of years, that one includes the single eeriest coincidental data point.
(By “coincidental” I don’t mean the overall pattern, I mean the fact that the crossover happened on that EXACT date as opposed to a week or two earlier or later.)
The crossover date does shift around a bit if you use the reddest/bluest 20% or 30%, but at 10%, which is what I’ve been using in a lot of my work, it’s right on the nose.
For those wondering, on 1/20/21, the official cumulative COVID death rate in both the reddest and bluest tenths of the U.S. was right around 138.4 per 100K residents (roughly 45,800 apiece).
And yes, the exact date itself is a coincidence—the narrowing trend clearly started around mid-July 2020 as the blue urban centers had gotten things under control while the red rural areas weren’t doing much of anything and Trump was holding his massive superspreader rallies.
Originally tweeted by Charles Gaba 🇺🇦 (@charles_gaba) on March 16, 2022.
The date may be a coincidence but the data aren’t. You all know why it happened. And it was utterly senseless.
We are about to have another surge which is depressing since we just came out of the last one. But it is what it is. If the data coming from around the world where OMICRON B is surging holds up it means that our vaccinations should mitigate the worst of it. But if you are over 60 or you or members of your family have any medical vulnerability, you’d better wear your mask and wear it right. A whole lot of people won’t do you the favor of wearing one so you’ll have to be extra careful.
And it looks like 4th boosters are probably on the horizon. I hope they ok them soon enough that waning immunity from the first 3 doesn’t kill a whole bunch of us for no reason.
Fasten your seatbelts.