… for Trump
Axios recognizes reality:
Think about how topsy-turvy Republican politics has become for Trump’s top rivals to defend him after he’s indicted.
If that’s the mood of the GOP electorate now, good luck getting past Trump for the nomination.
The first poll conducted post-indictment, by Yahoo News/YouGov, shows Trump’s support skyrocketing among Republicans. Trump now holds a 26-point lead over Florida Gov. DeSantis (57%-31%) in the GOP primary — up from just eight points two weeks ago.
What’s good for Trump in a primary is unlikely to translate into a general election. Trump had rock-bottom favorability ratings among all Americans before the indictment, and the specter of a presidential candidate facing the prospect of jail time isn’t likely to win over swing voters.
The problem for Republicans is that their voters don’t care much about electability. Just look at their 2022 roster of statewide candidates, which was filled with deeply flawed nominees who nonetheless cruised through primaries in which the most extreme rhetoric resonated.
Getting them to care about DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley or anyone else will be a Herculean task as Trump’s legal predicament sucks up all the media oxygen.
By the numbers: An ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted after the indictment — but before the charges have been unsealed — found 47% of Americans view the prosecution as politically motivated, while 32% do not and 20% aren’t sure.
79% of Republicans see the charges as politically motivated — illustrating the fusing of Trump’s base with the Republican Party.
Trump’s growing momentum in primary polls pre-indictment — combined with DeSantis’ shaky debut on the national stage — already was altering the trajectory of the 2024 contest.
The lineup of potential candidates is shrinking, as potential Trump rivals assess their viability in a party that’s becoming increasingly dominated by its MAGA base.
Others, such as former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie or newly announced presidential candidate Asa Hutchinson, see an opening for a candidate to make a strong case against Trump at a time when everyone else is avoiding directly attacking the front-runner.
The fact that so few Republicans dare to confront Trump speaks to the cold, hard political truth, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll: 72% of Republicans said they believe Trump has had a positive impact on the GOP and 79% said they view themselves as part of Trump’s MAGA movement.
We all knew the MAGA cult would rally and the so-called establishment would fall in line behind them. It’s what they do. But there is no reason to believe that it will help him in a general election. Most of the country isn’t quite that crazy … yet.