They made this mess for themselves and they can’t get out of it.
It’s over for 2024. But they somehow believe it will all right itself for 2028. They are as delusional as always.
The remaindered class of the Republican presidential field was in survival mode last night in Simi Valley, where seven candidates took the stage at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library to make their case, however weakly, against Donald Trump. They were visibly feral from the start, thirsty for airtime, stomping all over each other for a breakout moment, or a fight, whichever presented itself first.
[…]
Privately, however, the Republican professional class is more cynical than ever following last night’s debate. Here are the four things that everyone is thinking, but not yet saying out loud.
Donors Are Already Giving Up
Trump’s rivals know that to make it to Iowa, they need to quickly convince donors sitting on the sidelines (or those disillusioned by former Golden Boy DeSantis) that their anemic campaigns deserve an infusion of fresh capital. A strong showing at the debate can do that. Alas, despite being so cash starved, no candidate substantially rose above the pack. “I don’t care about the JV things,” said one major donor. “People aren’t writing big checks off the back of this, no one is inspired.”
At the very least, donors need to see candidates rising in the polls, and the only way to do that is to take a bite out of someone else’s numbers. That’s why Vivek Ramaswamy, the jabbering billionaire-ish millennial wild card, who arrived on the scene mere months ago, and whose polling hovers around that of Nikki Haley and DeSantis, has become a constant target. There was hope in Haley’s camp that with another strong showing this week, donors might start opening up their wallets.
And last night, Haley was feisty: she stuck her jabs, something she’s been reluctant to do in the past, and she scored the moment of the night with her takedown of Ramaswamy (“every time I hear you I feel a little bit dumber”). She sparred with Tim Scott, whom she appointed to the Senate as governor in 2012, and she even took a shot at the race’s number two, DeSantis, though both did well enough that neither is likely to net much movement over the other. “No ‘big looks like seven figure moves’ for Nikki Haley,” the major donor said. “There’s nothing there to radically change [the dynamic of the race]. This isn’t the time to make the big ask.”
DeSantis met expectations, improving upon his stilted performance from the last debate (despite his creepy smile), but on the whole he has unperformed. “DeSantis’ people are like, ‘Wow, look what he did.’ He was better; it wasn’t a breakout,” said the major donor. “He just wasn’t as agitated and weird as the last time.”
The cool reception to DeSantis among donors has been compounded by a sense that the Florida governor doesn’t necessarily need the money, given that he had $12 million hard dollars in the second quarter, even if he has burned through it, not to mention the $100 million or so sitting inside his super PAC, the Jeff Roe-Axiom controlled vehicle Never Back Down. Donors I’ve spoken to are saying they’re in wait-and-see mode, needing DeSantis to make some substantial improvements on his own before they throw good money after bad.
And it’s not just DeSantis who is losing the support of the Republican money class. “Their backers’ realize it’s coming to an end soon,” said an advisor to major donors. “It was totally apparent, when they were talking over each other and trying to slam each other.” Soon, the candidates will have to disclose their Q3 fundraising totals before the third debate, in Miami, which is when we’ll really learn who’s running on jet fumes and who has the juice.
Of course, there are the candidates for whom money is no object. Doug Burgum, the tech billionaire turned North Dakota governor, seems to have figured out a way to buy his way onto the stage every time, despite his low name ID with voters. Tim Scott still has the financial support of Oracle mega-billionaire Larry Ellison, who, as my partner Teddy Schleifer has reported, has committed tens of millions of dollars to Scott’s presidential bid.
Nevertheless, the bar for making each subsequent debate keeps rising higheMike Pence, Chris Christie, Scott, and Burgum who have yet to qualify for the next debate, where the R.N.C.-imposed threshold has been raised to 70,000 unique donors and 4 percent in the polls. Those numbers become harder and harder to reach as the electorate becomes more educated about the candidates, up-for-grabs voters begin to lock their choices in, and the top frontrunners begin to coalesce. From here on out it’s a zero sum game.
The Debates Aren’t Working
If the debates are supposed to be an exercise in consolidating around one candidate in a heavyweight match against Trump, then they’re not working. It’s not just because there haven’t been clear winners of the first two debates. As Michael Scherer recently noted, even if you combined the polling of all seven candidates on the stage into one person, that person would still be losing to Trump by 20 points.
Sure, if there was only one candidate against Trump, money would surely pile in from the likes of the Koch network and the deepest-pocketed anti-Trump donors. But alas this seems unlikely, and not simply because no candidate has emerged so victorious from a debate that they’ve started substantially stealing support from the others on stage. This Hail Mary consolidation argument was made in 2016, too, but the hypothesis remains unproven.
At the very least, it’s boldly presumptuous to assume that if DeSantis were to drop out his supporters would rally around Haley or Scott instead of just flocking to Trump. “I don’t know that there was much said on the stage last night that would shake the people who were with Trump from not being with him,” said a longtime party aide. “It’s possible that there are soft leaning voters towards Trump, maybe an Iowa or New Hampshire voter who found Christie’s line that Trump is disrespecting the voters by not showing up compelling. It’s just so not close. And it doesn’t look like it’s going to be.”
The Youngkin Pipe Dream
If you want to know just how disappointed donors are with the current batch of candidates, you can see it in the latest crop of trial balloon stories about Glen Youngkin parachuting into the primary race after Virginia’s midterm elections. It wasn’t lost on anyone that the day after the debate, Robert Costa landed an op-ed piece at his old stomping grounds, The Washington Post, channeling the billionaire lovefest for Youngkin from the likes of Tom Peterffy and Rupert Murdoch, who are pushing him to make a late entry and save the old G.O.P. establishment from the current crop of bozos. Costa reports that “alarmed Republicans” are attending a “Red Vest Retreat” next month, where they plan to pressure him to enter the race. His piece quotes the top shelf of establishment Republicans, from John Bolton to Bill Barr, who seem high on Youngkin. In a seemingly coordinated media move, Youngkin appeared on Fox News two hours later, where he was asked about running in 2024.
Of course, it’ll take much more than money; Youngkin may struggle to get on the ballot in many states, depending on what time he decides to make his grand entrance. And he would still face the same problems as every other candidate on the stage. Indeed, if the Youngkin wishcasting demonstrates anything, it’s only to underscore that many donors are morons or naifs when it comes to understanding the reality of the modern G.O.P.
“I think Youngkin’s people are smart to harness unhappiness among the donor class for the current candidates,” said the longtime party hand. “There’s nothing that would change the race with the Youngkin candidacy that isn’t being offered by the other candidates. It’s not like Glenn Youngkin is going to get in the race and a significant number of Trump voters are going to say ‘He’s the guy we’re missing.’ And he’s not going to take from all of the rest of the candidates, especially not from the likes of Tim Scott or Nikki Haley. For Youngkin to get into the race, he needs to peel off 20 percent of Trump’s share and get all of the candidates’ voters. ”
Sure, it’s all well and good for Youngkin, who is term-limited and can draft off the chatter, keeping his name out there and giving him a reason to keep flirting with donors. “The Youngkin chatter feels planted and planned out because we’re so disappointed that DeSantis isn’t the clear alternative,” said an Iowa operative. “It helps Youngkin’s brand, but I hope this isn’t consultants trying to make a couple bucks.”
Time to Start Thinking About 2028
Some of these candidates are surely taking their last big swings at national politics, such as Mike Pence and Chris Christie—I doubt we’ll see them reemerge in 2028. But with each passing day, I hear more and more chatter about the next presidential election, and how this current class of also-rans may be positioning themselves for the next four years, whether it’s Trump or Biden in the White House.
If there’s one thing for certain, the MAGA phenomenon that Trump unleashed will still be a major factor in American politics next cycle, and how you tangled with him this year may affect your chances in 2028. (They’ll likely all want his endorsement, and his base, probably even if he’s incarcerated.) It may explain why all of the candidates, except for Christie, have essentially tip-toed around the man and his record, in hopes of preserving their viability. Of course, it’s a Catch-22: If they started attacking Trump from the beginning, maybe they wouldn’t be in this position now, looking like a bunch of “JV” players who never stepped up. I’m sure Mike Pompeo is privately relieved that he didn’t jump in.
As for DeSantis, who’s endured relentless attacks from Trump, how he manages the support of the median Trump voter will be critical to whether he has a political career beyond Florida in the years to come. If he becomes a big champion for Trump, a warrior-surrogate on the trail, that may provide a lifeboat to keep his prospects alive from this cycle to the next. But it’s a hard pivot to manage, as evidenced by the path of Ted Cruz, the last Roe-advised presidential client, who famously bowed to Trump, and was accepted back into the fold, but never quite recovered his political mojo.
“It’s worse if you stay in, you get 10 percent in Iowa and then you want to be there next time? How he handles the drop out, and if he joins the Trump team, is what matters more,” said a G.O.P. operative. “What does he do with the loss? I don’t know that he could suck it up and do that, because he’s kind of a dick. It’s definitely personal.”