2024 is a decade away in political years
Dave Wasserman commented last night on the present chaos in D.C.: “What’s so wild about the current political environment is that if the 2024 election were held this November, I believe a) Biden’s numbers are so bad he’d lose to an indicted Trump and b) House Rs are so dysfunctional/out of sorts they would lose the majority.”
November 2024 is a decade away in political years. Donald Trump could be appealing convictions by then, be banned from the ballot in a state or two, or be drooling onto his fast food while raging about beating Barack Obama at the polls in November as a regional war burns in the Middle East.
Still, Wasserman’s warnings about Biden’s weakness point to some Democratic weaknesses I monitor.
How is it Dems are cleaning up in special elections/referendums if their national poll numbers are so bad? Because in the Trump era, Dems are excelling w/ the most civic-minded, highly-engaged voters.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 14, 2023
Their biggest weakness? Peripheral voters who only show up in presidentials.
They skew young, unaffiliated, nonwhite and non-college. They’re also more likely to base their choice on a simplistic evaluation of whether the economy was better under Trump or Biden.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 14, 2023
On this question – and on immigration/age concerns – Biden is routinely getting clobbered.
If these infrequent voters will base their votes on “whether the economy was better under Trump or Biden,” that’s not how Republicans will campaign, especially with Trump atop the ticket. He’ll lead with “Sleepy Joe” and culture war/immigration, especially with the Hamas attacks fresh in people’s minds.
Now fast forward to 2024 with tied national polls, 40% Biden approval, equally dismal Biden/Trump favorability, more economic pessimism, growing migrant/intl crises and the potential for RFK/West to double Jill Stein’s pull on campuses, etc.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) October 14, 2023
Biden is in absolutely dire shape.
Where I agree is that with infrequent and unaffiliated voters, Democrats are policy liberals and campaign conservatives. When every damned election is “the most important election of our lifetime,” they take no chances, try nothing new. Throw the bomb? Hell, no. Too risky. Fall on the ball and hope to run out the clock instead. That is, do what they’ve always done, just more of it.
There are tens of thousands of Democratic votes in North Carolina alone among unaffiliated voters who sit at home in blue precincts where their unaffiliated neighbors overwhelmingly vote Democrat. But campaigns ignore them because these registrants have three strikes against them.
Strike 1: They are not registered Democrats.
Strike 2: They have poor voting records (low-propensity voters).
Strike 3: They reside in voting precincts so blue and that campaigns waste no time there.
Unaffiliated turnout is ~12% less than Democratic turnout in these precincts. In the rest of my state it is only 5-6% less.
Q1: Are R-leaning UNAs more motivated to vote in redder counties? If so, why?
Q2: Are D-leaning UNAs less motivated to vote in bluer counties? If so, why?
What are Democrats prepared to do about it … 2024 being “the most important election of our lifetime” and all?