Biden likes the political fray. It’s his life.
JV Last says we shouldn’t be surprised by Biden’s performance last night because he’s actually good at this stuff. And he is. But for some reason people always forget that until he does it again. Anyway, Last has an interesting observation about the campaign that I think is correct:
But I’m not here to sell t-shirts. I’m here to point out one of the fundamental asymmetries that was on display last night and how it’s going to drive this campaign.
Donald Trump is a dominance politician. His mode of operation is to bully and intimidate. He is bad at making deals. (Shocking, I know.) He is personally offended by people who do not prostrate themselves to him. He has no interest in legislating and no policy goals he seeks to achieve. His theory of the 2024 election is that he will drive the turnout of his base—primarily rural white men without college degrees who do not often vote—to such a degree that their numbers swamp an average Democratic turnout and the turnout of frequent-voting independents.
Trump is interested in capitulation, not persuasion.
What you saw from Biden last night was the polar opposite in both temperament and strategy.
Biden is a back-slapper. He works well with his political opponents. He likes people—even people who aren’t on his side. He’s good at compromise and has real-world bills he wants to pass.
Biden is a politician and a persuader. That is fundamentally who he is and this fact informs his strategy. Biden is not banking on turning out 110 percent of Democratic voting benchmarks. He is not looking to bring in low-propensity voters who normally have little interest in politics.
His goal is to let Trump take care of Democratic turnout while he peels off 10 percent of self-identifies Republican voters (up from 8 percent in 2020) and then wins the double-doubter independents decisively.
Which is what he took aim at last night. On policy, he did this by hitting Ukraine, Roe, and immigration—three areas in which he’s where the majority is on policy. But he also did it with his mien. Did you catch how feisty Biden was? He enjoyed it when Republicans booed him—and I mean that he enjoyed it in the way that a guy who thinks there’s supposed to be give-and-take likes to spar.
But maybe the most telling moment of the entire evening was Biden’s reaction to MTG’s wardrobe choice as he made his way through the chamber
MTG confronted Biden in full MAGA regalia and imagined that she was doing something disrespectful and transgressive—that she was going to show him that she was unafraid of his socialist crime family or whatever.
And Biden loved it! He was clearly tickled, like he thought that this Jewish Space Laser CrossFit lady wasn’t an enemy to be crushed, but just a wacky part of life’s rich pageant.
Last night was a clear view into the choice this campaign will present voters: An angry strong man who dominates and fights or a happy politician who persuades, cajoles, and compromises. Which of them will be the best steward of a strong American economy?
That is a campaign Joe Biden can win.
I don’t know if Last is right about Biden’s strategy but he is certainly right about who Biden is although Biden is going to have to cut through a lot of bullshit punditry. The right predictably said Biden was angry and divisive, apparently not realizing that they were undercutting their own characterization of him as a doddering dementia patient. And there were members of the media (Gloria Borger, I’m looking at you) who said that he was “too angry.” But I think most people watching the speech saw a fired up Joe Biden who was, as Last says, a confident politician in full control who was enjoying the fray. Some people might call that a “happy warrior” and right now that’s just what the doctor ordered.