Ankush Khardori at Politico takes a look at some polling on Trump’s legal problems:

Eight months out, we had questions. Among them: If Trump is convicted of a crime, how will it affect his chances of returning to the White House? What do Americans make of his claim that he should be immune from prosecution even if he actually perpetrated a criminal scheme to steal the last election? Does the public trust the Supreme Court to decide that issue fairly?

To find out, we worked with Ipsos to poll the American people — and we discovered some surprising answers to all of these questions, and several more.

The bottom line is that a conviction in Manhattan may not doom Trump, but it would do real damage.

More than a third of independents said a guilty verdict would make them less likely to support Trump’s candidacy. In a close race, that might matter.

It also cuts against the conventional wisdom, as analysts have sometimes doubted the political impact of the prosecution in Manhattan, which concerns Trump’s alleged falsification of his company’s business records in connection with a hush-money payment to the adult film star Stormy Daniels. The trial, which was set to start March 25, was delayed on Friday by at least three weeks to allow more time to review records from federal prosecutors.

As for Trump and the Supreme Court, the results are legitimately remarkable in a time of intense political polarization and distrust of the justices. A whopping 70 percent of the country rejects Trump’s claim that presidents should be immune from prosecution for alleged crimes they committed while in office. Less than a quarter of the respondents, meanwhile, said that they trust the Supreme Court to issue a fair and nonpartisan ruling on the matter.

Key findings.

Half of the country believes Trump is guilty in the Manhattan prosecution

Fifty percent of respondents said that they believe Trump is guilty of the alleged crimes charged in Manhattan.

There was a predictable and sizable partisan split, with only 14 percent of Republicans reporting that they believe Trump is guilty, while 86 percent of Democrats held that view. Among independents, 54 percent said that Trump is guilty.

What arguably stands out most is the fact that the number of people who said that they believe Trump is guilty here was nearly identical to the results when we asked respondents to consider Trump’s guilt in his other three criminal cases — the Justice Department’s prosecution in Washington over the 2020 election (49 percent said he is guilty), the department’s charges against Trump in Florida over his retention of classified documents (52 percent: guilty), and the Fulton County District Attorney’s case against Trump in Georgia over the 2020 election (49 percent: guilty). These numbers also roughly track Trump’s unfavorability ratings among the American population.

All of this suggests at least two possibilities worth bearing in mind, and they are not mutually exclusive.

First, it is possible that at least some Americans — perhaps very large numbers of them — are not clearly distinguishing the cases against Trump from one another or do not care about the sorts of distinctions that have occupied some legal commentators, including yours truly. Second, their opinions on Trump’s guilt may be a proxy for their views on Trump more generally and more evidence that we live in a 50-50 politically polarized country.

44% said that a conviction wouldn’t affect their support. But among those who said it would. Trump has a problem:

By a more than 2-1 margin, respondents said that a conviction would make them less likely to support Trump (32 percent) as opposed to more likely (13 percent). Notably, more than a third of independents said it would reduce their likelihood to support Trump. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of respondents who said that a conviction would bolster their support were Republicans. (The numbers were similar when we asked about a potential conviction in the federal prosecution for undermining the 2020 election.)

The one problem is that much of the case hinges on Michael Cohen which actually helps Trump since 38% said it would make the case weaker while the rest either said it would make the case stronger or have no effect. We’ll have to see if that skepticism applies to a jury.

The good news is that the American people haven’t completely lost their bearings: the overwhelming majority does no believe that a president should have total immunity as Trump is insisting:

Seventy percent of respondents rejected this position, including a large plurality (48 percent) of Republicans. Only 11 percent of all respondents endorsed Trump’s position that presidents should have criminal immunity for conduct while in office, and they were largely Republicans.

Unfortunately, half the country doesn’t trust the Supreme Court to issue the correct ruling:

A sizable plurality (46 percent) expressed that view, while about a quarter of the respondents (24 percent) took the other side. About a third (29 percent) said that they do not know whether they trust the court on this issue.

It doesn’t give us which people believe that but I would guess it’s a little of both. MAGA is high on its persecution complex and Democrats can already see that the high court is delaying the trial to help Trump so…

But the public isn’t swayed by that:

The odds of a Trump trial in Washington this year may have gone down, but that has not deterred the public.

Fifty-nine percent of respondents said that Trump should stand trial in the Justice Department’s 2020 election subversion case before Election Day. Ninety percent of Democrats expressed that view, as did 65 percent of independents and even 26 percent of Republicans. These figures have largely held steady since we asked the question last August and are in line with the results from at least one other recent poll.

As I said earlier, perhaps the majority of Americans haven’t abandoned all common sense after all. Will it make any difference? I doubt it. But they are the ultimate jury so let’s hope all those people come out and vote in November whether or not Trump has to face a courtroom jury before then.