We finally got the latest all-important NY Times poll which shows that Biden has gained 4 points in the last 6 weeks or so and is now virtually tied with Trump. This follows most of the other polling over the past few weeks showing that Biden’s numbers have moved up. The article accompanying is predictably dour, suggesting that everyone hates him anyway and that underneath it all Trump is really much more popular (which is untrue) but that’s how the NY Times polling rolls these days. The fact is that Biden is steadily turning the ship around and Democrats are coming back on board. If the race were held today it would be a a nail biter and it very likely will be the same in November because half the country is in a cult-like trance and believes that Donald Trump is either Jesus Christ or a business genius who will make them all rich and the rest of us are terrified that this fascist cult leader will edge out another win. I don’t know if there’s any way to change that.
Mr Hopium Simon Rosenberg puts it in perspective for you in a way that will make you breathe just a little bit easier:
More data now showing a changing election, one getting much better for Joe Biden and the Democrats. A new NYT poll has Biden going from down 5 to down 1, 46-45 – a 4 point gain! This encouraging movement is consistent with many other polls we’ve seen in recent weeks. The election today is close and competitive. Trump no longer leads, and things are moving in our direction.
The analysis of the poll is also consistent with the argument I’ve been making about what was likely to happen this spring – once the general began, and the Biden campaign turned on, some of our wandering coalition would begin to come home and Biden’s numbers would go up. Here’s a few excerpts from the NYT analysis of its poll:
the Democratic base has begun to coalesce behind the president…..Mr. Biden’s tick upward appears to stem largely from his improved standing among traditional Democratic voters — he is winning a greater share of voters who supported him in 2020 than he did a month ago…..
In the last month, Mr. Biden’s support among white voters remained flat, but it has inched upward among Black and Latino voters…….Mr. Biden was faring better than he had been a month ago in suburbs and among women……
The last few weeks have brought us lots of encouraging polling. Trump’s leads outside the margin of error have disappeared. Almost every poll national poll taken in recent weeks has the race within margin of error – meaning it’s close and competitive. 21 polls taken since late February have Biden ahead. Many polls have found meaningful movement towards Biden (he’s gained 4 points here, 6 points in Harris X for example). We’ve started seeing better numbers in the battleground states too, as there are now polls with Biden ahead in MI, PA, WI. We had 2 very encouraging polls in NC this week showing Biden within margin of error (tied). One Quinnipiac had Josh Stein up 52-44.
I particularly enjoyed this, however:
I went on CNN last night to discuss Biden’s improving poll numbers and what has become a very bad April for Donald Trump. Do watch if you have a minute, and yes I finally got a haircut:
As I discuss in the clip I think this has been a disastrous stretch for Trump and the Republicans. The new AZ and FL Supreme Court decisions stripping the rights and freedoms from millions of women in America has sent a powerful reminder to all Americans of the ongoing threat MAGA poses to all of us.
The damage to MAGA was compounded by Trump’s idiotic attempts to minimize the fallout. In a big reveal on Monday he announced he was for leaving reproductive health decisions not to women and their doctors but to politicians in the states. And whatever he thought he was doing, by taking this position, he endorsed and green-lighted the most extreme abortion laws in the country, in places like Florida, Idaho and Texas. He made it clear that total abortion bans with no exceptions and penalties for “trafficking women” were good with him. And if those are okay with him in any state, it means it would be okay with him nationally. Whatever the moronic Trump thought he was doing on Monday, he actually confirmed that he is the most powerful and dangerous abortion extremist in modern American history. He and his party will now have to defend these extremist bans which poll at about 20% across the US, a devastating political place to be on an issue which really matters to voters.
I think Trump’s confirmation of his extremism, and his Monty Python-esque handling of it, is going to cost him and his party in the polls in the coming weeks. It’s already fired up Democrats and will result in us raising more money and getting more volunteer time from our supporters. And on Monday his horrific April continues as his criminal trial stemming from his having sex with a porn star while married to Melania begins. I for one am looking forward to Christian Republicans like Mike Johnson defending the right of Trump to have sex with porn stars while married and illegally covering it all up – hey, no biggie. We all do it!
Trump’s very bad April is about to get a whole lot worse.
