Don’t lose your nerve, Joe
A friend who like others is permanently frustrated with “the Democrats” said Monday she wants them to show more fight. No argument here.
We saw feistiness from Joe Biden during and in the wake of his State of the Union address: a flurry of hard-hitting internet ads went after his wannabe fascist opponent. But as college protests proliferated over the body count in the Gaza Strip, it feels as if the Biden campaign has dialed it back. It’s not helping that some polls show him trailing Donald Trump in several battleground states.
Tuesday’s Axios story that claims Biden doesn’t believe he’s behind, writes Dan Pfeiffer, got “Democrats reverting to their natural state of worry verging on panic.” Pfeiffer argues that campaign is not in denial about current polling. Running a campaign. especially a presidential campaign, is largely about “mood management,” he explains. What makes it worse is Democrats vent their anxieties in public while you rarely see a poll unfavorable to Donald Trump on Fox News:
Of course, the Biden folks are putting their best face forward. What do these reporters want them to say? OMG, WE ARE LOSING!!! And then crawl under the nearest table and assume the fetal position? Of course, they are confident, but that’s not the same as cockiness or denial.
But what are they doing?
I doubt the campaign agrees Biden is down by such large margins in Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. I also doubt the Biden Campaign agrees that Trump is winning historically significant shares of young, Black, and Hispanic voters. But if we focus on how the campaign is deploying resources, it is obvious this will be an incredibly close election that could come down to a few thousand votes in the six battleground states. The Biden Campaign is raising money and spending it at a frenetic pace. They are running millions of dollars in television and digital ads monthly. According to the Biden Campaign, by the end of this month, they will have 200 offices and 500 staffers across the six battleground states polled by the NYT and North Carolina.
The time and money spent shows that they aren’t in denial about the demographic challenges. This campaign is targeting Black and Hispanic voters much earlier than previous campaigns. Last week, the campaign announced major ad buys in Black, Hispanic, and AAPI media. Finally, over the last several months, the President has highlighted his efforts to cancel student debt, fight climate change, and decriminalize marijuana — all issues of particular importance to younger voters.
I have known the people running the Biden Campaign for decades. These are very smart, experienced, data-driven political operatives. They know what they are doing. They are not readying themselves for defeat. Whether you think the latest polls are right or wrong, the operatives are making perfect moves. I am not saying Biden will win. This is a very tough election and he is facing a lot of headwinds, But if he loses,, it won’t be because of complacency or denial on the part of his campaign.
That’s all reassuring. Mastering the mechanics is vital. But what the Biden campaign also needs to manage is my friend’s mood and yours. Elections are not about good policy. They are for better or worse about feelings. Lately, about vibes. About the economy, inflation, etc., yes, but about more.
Michael Tomasky scratches his head over Trump getting credit for Biden’s economic accomplishments. Part of the problem is the media’s need to balance any good news about Biden’s accomplishments with criticism (even up-is-down lies) from Republicans. The numbers are good for the Biden economy, but it’s people’s perceptions that drive them. It’s no good if Biden’s economic numbers are terrific and no one knows it.
The New Republic cautions that conservative plans for dismantling the government under a second Trump administration could roll back a century of progress on public health. Food that’s safe to eat, air that’s safe to breathe, water that’s clean, and access to medical care when you get sick is on the line. Democrats need to be seen fighting for them, not just touting their policies and statistics.
Republicans are the bad guys here, bent on tearing down the fabric of the country. Conservatives don’t like social changes over the last couple of decades? How will they feel about losing the health insurance Democrats won them? How will they feel about losing their Medicare and Medicaid, about having their Social Security benefits cut? How will the rest of us feel about seeing marginalized communties driven back into the closet?
Biden needs more than numbers. He needs a narrative, a story with heroes. And he needs to press the attack. In its absence, the right with its multi-tentacled media machine will advance its own and win the battle of public perceptions.
Remember Maverick losing his nerve near the end of Top Gun? But then he calls on his reserves — “Talk to me, Goose.” —and the radarman on the carrier calls out, “Maverick’s reengaging, sir.” Biden and “the Democrats” need to do the same.
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