It’s still the Independents, stupid
Six in 10 key state voters turn out sporadically or are not firmly committed, Post-Schar poll finds. Let’s dig in:
In a nation where many voters have made up their minds, Denning [26] and Etter [age 48] are among the voters whose decisions about the presidential race are neither firmly fixed nor whose participation is wholly predictable. As a group, these voters do not exactly fit the description of being undecided. Some lean toward a specific candidate. Some even say they will definitely vote for that candidate. But age or voting history or both leave open the question of how they will vote in November — if they vote at all.
The Washington Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University surveyed 3,513 registered voters in the six key battleground states. The survey was completed in April and May, before a New York jury found Trump guilty on 34 counts in the hush money trial involving an adult-film actress. Of the 3,513 surveyed, 2,255 were classified as “Deciders” — those who fit into one or more categories: They voted in only one of the last two presidential elections; are between ages 18 and 25; registered to vote since 2022; did not definitely plan to vote for either Biden or Trump this year; or switched their support between 2016 and 2020.
They are also classified as Deciders because they will have enormous influence in determining the winner of what are expected to be another round of close contests in the battleground states.
Not spongeworthy
These look like the voters I’m working on (and not very successfully trying to get Democrats to target) for reasons of age and voting history. They don’t look like low-hanging fruit for turnout efforts per what comes out of the Dems’ computer. In Seinfeld terms, they’re not spongeworthy.
One factor in assessing how these Deciders might act in the fall election is their view of the current state of politics and their interest in the election. Although some say they will definitely vote for either Biden or Trump, their voting history leaves open the question of whether they will follow through. The fact that they are less focused on the election underscores that these voters are different from those who are firmly committed and have a history of regular voting.
Almost 8 in 10 Deciders say they feel “worn out by the amount of politics news there is these days,” compared with about 7 in 10 non-Deciders. Four in 10 say they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the election, considerably smaller than the roughly 3 in 4 voters who are locked in supporting Trump or Biden. And while 60 percent of Deciders say they are either “extremely” or “very” motivated to vote in November, that’s far lower than the more than 9 in 10 (96 percent) of locked-in Biden and Trump voters who are so motivated.
“There’s a sense that there’s something important happening but nobody is particularly motivated to do anything about it,” said Mark J. Rozell, dean of the Schar School. “That is an opportunity for either candidate to find something to mobilize the American public.”
It’s a single anecdote, I know. But at a neighborhood mixer on Thursday, a woman said her kid (F/M?) had called and chewed on her ear about Gaza and Biden. They called again later to say that of course they were voting for Biden. Excitement about the candidates may not be the measure of turnout articles like this make it out to be. Engagement is. So freakin’ engage.
People like Deciders, especially those 45 and under, “view themselves as proudly unmoored from any candidate or party.” They play hard to get when polled.
Younger voters often turn out in lower percentages than older voters and, beyond that, young voters are far less committed to one of the major parties than are older voters. Biden’s campaign is keenly aware of the need to find ways to motivate these younger voters, who in recent campaigns have strongly backed Democratic candidates.
Deciders are more likely to be Black or Hispanic than non-Deciders. One-third of Deciders are non-White compared with about a fifth of other voters.
Deciders are more likely than non-Deciders to live in urban areas and are more likely to have no religion. They are twice as likely as non-Deciders (17 percent to 9 percent) to get their political news from TikTok and somewhat more likely to turn to YouTube for political news.
That’s my point (It’s The Independents, Stupid). They reside in urban areas where it’s easier to do voter outreach.
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