Swing voters swing, Biden delivers
Trends are more important than individual polls. Since Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts (with more cases pending), polling trend lines now favor Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential race. Polling immediately after Trump’s convictions was too soon to pick up the shift. Two-time Trump voters have had enough. Donald Trump is bleeding support.
“My guess is right now, this is gonna be a blip,” pollster Lee Carter told Fox News’ Fox & Friends this morning. “I don’t think this is something that’s long term.
Sure. Just a flesh wound.
Significantly, there has been a large swing since May among independent voters toward Biden. And since they are the largest bloc of registrants in many states, independent turnout could be determinative.
Simon Rosenberg tweets, “We’ve had lots of polling this year suggesting a Trump guilty conviction could weaken his coalition and cost him voters (as it should). We now have 6 national polls showing Biden gaining 2-4 pts since the conviction. Election appears to be changing, getting bluer.”
The Fox poll was among registered voters.
One of the states where independents don’t register that way is the key state of Wisconsin. After Trump’s “I Hate Milwaukee” declaration, it’s hard to know how that will play out in Trump-country counties where Republicans and R-leaners would like to carve heavily Black and Democrat Milwaukee out of the state.
Still, WisDems state chair Ben Wikler is making the most of his high profile to knock the hot air out of his Republican sparring partners while promoting how Joe Biden’s policies have delivered.
It’s a thing of beauty.
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