Last night Biden questioned the reliability of the polls and he’s not wrong. They’re very weird this year, not necessarily in terms of the close race, which they almost all show, but in the cross tabs which keep featuring weird stuff that doesn’t make sense like Trump only being ahead in single digits among white people while garnering huge numbers among African Americans. I don’t know what the problem is but I’m finding myself very skeptical that we’re getting a real look at the state of the race from public polling.
Anyway, yesterday the Washington Post/ABC Ipsos poll had Biden at 42% and Trump at 43%, essentially tied. Here’s another respected poll the NPR Marist poll today:
With just days to go before the start of the Republican National Convention, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump continue to be closely matched among registered voters in both a head-to-head matchup and a multicandidate field.
It too has weird cross tabs so I don’t know what to think. I dis find this interesting, however:
Americans are overwhelmingly more concerned about a president who plays fast and loose with the facts than someone who is too old to serve. Nearly seven in ten Americans (68%) think it is more concerning if a president does not tell the truth. Nearly one in three (32%) think it is more concerning if someone is too old to serve. Democrats (85%), independents (66%), and a slim majority of Republicans (51%) agree that dishonesty is of greater concern over advanced age.
If that was true, you would think Biden would win in a landslide. But you have to consider that many Republicans have been brainwashed to believe that Trump is an innocent truth-teller while Biden and his “crime family” are inveterate liars. Still, it’s interesting that so many people in both parties still at least pay lip service to the idea that honesty is important. (Note that only 51% of GOP voters believe that which indicates that at least half of them know that Trump is a lying sack of shit.)
Here are a few more interesting, if confounding findings:
Majority Believes Biden Has the Character to be President, Trump Falls Short
52% of Americans think Biden has the character to serve as president. 47% disagree. 50% of independents and just 10% of Democrats question Biden’s character to serve as president.
A majority of Americans (56%), including 18% of Republicans and 58% of independents, do not think Trump has the character to be President of the United States.
Biden Viewed as Lacking the Mental Fitness to Serve, Americans Divide About Trump
Nearly two in three Americans (64%), including 38% of Democrats and 35% of Biden supporters, do not think Biden has the mental fitness to serve as president. 68% of independents say the same.
Americans divide (50% mentally fit to 49% mentally unfit) about Trump’s mental acuity.
Nearly Six in Ten Think Trump will Win
Regardless of whom they plan to support, 59% of Americans think Trump will win this year’s presidential election. Most Republicans (93%) and a majority of independents (58%) think Trump will be victorious. Even 24% of Democrats and 22% of Biden supporters think Trump will win.
Neither Trump nor Biden Should be on the Ballot, Say Majorities
A majority of Americans (56%) do not think that Biden should be the Democratic candidate this year. A similar proportion of Americans (54%) do not think Trump should be the Republican nominee. However, Democrats (40%) are more likely to say that Biden should not be the Democratic candidate than Republicans (13%) are to say that Trump should not be the GOP nominee.
Biden and Trump Favorable Ratings Remain Upside Down
A majority of Americans (51%) have an unfavorable view of Biden, and 43% have a favorable one. Trump’s ratings are similar. 53% have a negative impression of Trump, and 43% have a positive one. Biden and Trump’s favorable ratings are little changed from last month.
Biden’s job approval rating is little changed at 43%. Last month, 41% of Americans approved of how Biden was doing his job. 52% disapprove, and 5% are unsure. One in four residents (25%) strongly approve of Biden’s job performance, and 40% strongly disapprove.
Newsom, Harris, Whitmer Match or Underperform Biden Against Trump
If Biden decides to drop out of the presidential contest, other potential Democratic candidates do not improve the Democrats chances against Trump.
- Harris receives support from 50% of registered voters to 49% for Trump.
- Newsom garners 50% to 48% for Trump.
- Whitmer receives 49% of the vote to 49% for Trump.
Among independents, Trump receives majority support against Harris and Whitmer. Independents divide when asked to choose between Trump and Newsom.
You’ll note that the alternative Democrats are getting about the same as Biden which supports my theory that this election is a battle of coalitions, not a battle of two men (although the fascist coalition is also a personality cult.) More on that later.
I’m not sure that Joe Biden has to go — or stay, at least based on the polls. If I lean toward him going, it’s based upon my observation that the press is so invested in his dropping out that they will make it a lot harder for him to win and in a close race that could make the difference. That’s assuming they wouldn’t do the same to Harris, who some in the media are already accusing of orchestrating a cover-up of Biden’s health because she has been vouching for him. I’m not sure anyone can overcome the press pack because its discovered something that has them very excited:
I’m afraid so. And they’re so overstimulated right now that they may very well chase the dragon and treat Harris the same way.