More from the new NY Times poll on those battleground states:
Vice President Kamala Harris has stormed into contention in the fast-growing and diverse states of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, not long after Donald J. Trump had seemed on the verge of running away with those states when President Biden was still the Democratic nominee.
The new polls from The New York Times and Siena College show how quickly Ms. Harris has reshaped the terrain of 2024 and thrust the Sun Belt back to the center of the battleground-state map.
Ms. Harris is now leading Mr. Trump among likely voters in Arizona, 50 percent to 45 percent, and has even edged ahead of Mr. Trump in North Carolina — a state Mr. Trump won four years ago — while narrowing his lead significantly in Georgia and Nevada.
[…]
That marks a significant improvement for Democrats compared with May, when Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden 50 percent to 41 percent across Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in the previous set of Times/Siena Sun Belt polls, which did not include North Carolina. The new polls provide more evidence that Ms. Harris is successfully consolidating parts of the Democratic base that had been waffling over supporting Mr. Biden for months, particularly younger, nonwhite and female voters.
Last week, Times/Siena polling showed that Ms. Harris had pulled ahead of Mr. Trump by a narrow margin in the three northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Those states are generally considered the linchpin of any Democratic path to the White House. The Sun Belt represents an essential set of states for Mr. Trump while offering a potential second route for Ms. Harris to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win.
In the new surveys, Mr. Trump is ahead in Georgia 50 percent to 46 percent, and, in Nevada, he has 48 percent compared to 47 percent for Ms. Harris. She has 49 percent of likely voters to Mr. Trump’s 47 percent in North Carolina, the only one of the seven core battleground states that he carried in 2020.
Trump is very weird too and he gets weirder by the day. It’s taking its toll.
The Times poll has been the toughest poll on the Democrats of the cycle so unless they’ve drastically changed their model this trend is positive. We’ll see if it continues but putting those other swing states back in play is good news,