The top is the headline from the new Washington Post/ABC/Ipsos poll which shows that Harris has taken the lead nationally by 4 points. As the NY Times Pitchbot satire account points out the characterization of her holding a “slight” lead is more than a little bit pinched. The newspapers are mad that she isn’t pounding at their doors begging to be interviewed 24/7 (the John McCain good old boys bus tours still remain their fondest dream.) So the coverage is hedged, to say the least.
The national polls are interesting, of course, if we want to know how the country at large is perceiving the race. But as we know, the real question is where we stand in the antiquated electoral college.
Dan Pfeiffer’s newsletter today took a deep dive into the polls. He discussed “the Blue Wall” strategy which until Harris took over was considered the only path Biden had to win. , Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin and the single district in Nebraska would get him to 270 and at the time he dropped out no other swing states appeared to be in play.
He says Harris’s best bet is to win those states as well but now there are some other paths available as well:
Ultimately, a campaign wants many paths to 270. In 2000, Al Gore needed Florida to win the White House and a small ballot snafu in Palm Beach County cost him the election. In other words, you want your electoral eggs in as many baskets as possible.
Harris once again made Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada competitive. According to a new poll from the Cook Political Report, Harris is up four in Arizona, tied in Georgia, and down five in Nevada.
A brand new set of New York Times/Siena polls found:
Arizona: Harris 50%, Trump 45%
Georgia: Trump 50%, Harris 46%
Nevada: Trump 48%, Harris 47%
It may seem counterintuitive because Democrats won Nevada in every presidential election since 2008; but it is likely the most difficult of the three states. Demographically, it is more Trump-friendly. Typically, the more college-educated a state’s populace, the more Democratic it is. A disproportionately large part of Nevada’s population did not attend college. It is also 30% Latino. Harris improved upon Biden’s 2024 numbers but still trails his 2020 numbers. According to polling from Equis Research, Harris is trailing Biden’s 2020 Latino support by 5 points — hence her deficit.
Some good news: Arizona and Nevada both have initiatives on the ballot this fall protecting abortion access, which could turbocharge turnout and ensure that Democrats’ best issue is top of mind for voters.
Notably, winning all three of these states and losing all three of the Blue Wall states (without winning anywhere else) is not enough to win. That path only gets you to 268 electoral votes. However, putting Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada in play means Harris has multiple paths to 270.
I am willing to place a tiny bet that Nevada will end up in Harris’s column. It will be close but I suspect the unions will come through.
He also suggests that North Carolina may be a real possibility but we don’t have enough information.
Barack Obama won North Carolina in 2008, and Democrats have been trying — and failing — to win the Tar Heel State ever since. Demographically, the state is more Republican than Georgia and is, therefore, a bit of a stretch for Democrats. However, Trump won it by only 73,000 votes in 2020. There has been very limited polling in the state since Harris emerged as the candidate, but a poll from the New York Times had Harris up two in the state, and Carolina Forward, a progressive organization, found the race tied 46-46.
He doesn’t mention it but the N. Carolina GOP has nominated a truly odious person for Governor who may make some voters decide that the combo of him and the grotesque Trump/Vance may just be too much.
The Harris campaign wants this state in play and wants Trump to defend it, but we need more data before putting it in the same group as the six states that decided 2020.
He doubts that Florida is really in play mainly because it’s so expensive and is such a long shot. Some polls show it’s pretty close but if Harris wins there it would probably mean she’s won in a landslide which is unlikely (why, I will never understand.)
He concludes:
First, Pennsylvania is still the most important state. Its 19 electoral votes are key to Harris’s paths to 270. Winning Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada only gets her to 268. Winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia’s 16 electoral votes leaves her three votes shy of the White House. If she wins Pennsylvania and either Michigan or Wisconsin, Georgia or Arizona will put her over the top.
Second, keep an eye on Nebraska. Earlier this year, Trump allies tried and failed to convince the legislature to change Nebraska law to allocate all of the state’s electoral votes to the popular vote winner. Nebraska is one of two states that awards their electoral votes by congressional district. Without the one electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, the Blue Wall path becomes insufficient. Trump is desperate, and his allies are making another run at cutting off Harris’s best path to the White House.
Finally, expect another very close race across the battleground states. The six to seven states that will decide the election are more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole. As a reminder, Biden won the popular vote by 4.4 points but won the Electoral College by about 40,000 votes spread across a small handful of states.
I still cannot believe that Trump is as popular as he is, even today when he sounds even more insane that he used to. I always believed he win the nomination but I’m honestly surprised that he’s holding on to 46% of the country. I thought at least 6-7% would have fallen away, tired of his schtick, sick of the chaos and the drama. But apparently they all just can’t get enough of it.