Good news for Democrats if registrants turn out
There is more than vibes to demonstrate that Kamala Harris leading the Democrats’ ticket has changed the dynamic of the presidential contest. There is data. Tom Bonier summarizes voter registration changes since the changeover.
Young Black women are leading the way, seeing their registration almost triple, relative to the same point in 2020. Young Hispanic women aren’t far behind, with a 150% increase in registration. Black women overall have almost doubled their registration numbers from 2020.
These changes are, unsurprisingly, substantially to the benefit of Democrats. Democratic registration has increased by over 50%, as compared to only 7% for Republicans. These new registrants are modeled as +20 pts Dem, as compared to +6 during the same week in 2020.
What’s “wild,” Bonier adds, is that this voter registration spike “even surpasses the post-Dobbs surge.”
Democrats stand to benefit in swing states like Georgia and North Carolina with their large populations of Black voters. Expanded registration by Hispanic women will not only help keep Arizona in Kamala Harris’ column, but play a larger role in Georgia and North Carolina as well.
My back-of-the napkin analysis of Hispanic/Latino voting patterns in my county indicate that nearly 60% of all HL voters are registered Democrat or UNAffiliated, with 60% of voters under 45 registered UNA. 35% vote irregularly, women more than men by about 3 to 2. But of the nearly one-quarter (22%) of registrants who vote consistently, women outperform men by 2 to 1. About 30% register (likely at the DMV or a social services agency) but never vote; this is a turnout challenge for Democrats. Few (mostly older registrants) were born outside the country per available registration data. This is a young cohort, about 70% are 45 and younger.
New registrants overall have a high propensity to vote the first time.
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