Depends on who’s asking
Ok, ok, I can’t resist. Here’s a little polling chum for a Monday afternoon. Don’t take any of it too seriously because the polls are close and polling is in crisis so we really have no earthly idea who’s ahead and who’s behind. But there are trends…
From Dan Pfeiffer’s post this morning on the post-debate polls:
The national polling averages remain largely unchanged. On the day of the debate, the FiveThirtyEight polling average had Harris leading Trump by 2.5%. Today, that lead is 2.8%. However, a steady stream of positive polls for Harris came out since the debate.
Simon Rosenberg compiled this list in a recent issue of his Hopium Chronicles newsletter:
Harris 50-45 (+5) Morning Consult
Harris 47-42 (+5) Ipsos/Reuters
Harris 51-47 (+4) RMG
Harris 50-46 (+4) Data For Progress
Harris 49-45 (+4) YouGov/Yahoo (LVs)
Harris 49-45 (+4) YouGov/Times (LVs)
Harris 47-43 (+4) TIPP Insights
Harris 50-47 (+3) Leger/NYPost
Harris 48-45 (+3) SoCal
Harris 44-42 (+2) Redfield & WiltonAnd then, on Sunday morning, an ABC News/Ipsos poll showed Harris up by six points over Trump. The poll that reinvigorated political junkies was from Iowa — a non-battleground state. The Des Moines Register poll shows Trump up by only four points. This poll was notable for a few reasons. One, it was conducted by Ann Selzer whose Iowa polls are seen as the gold standard. Two, a previous poll from June had Trump beating Biden by 18 points. Finally, states with similar demographics are correlated. If Biden was losing Iowa by 18 points, it was unlikely he was winning Wisconsin. If Harris is only down four in Iowa — a state Trump won by eight points in 2020, then she should be well-positioned to win in the Blue Wall states.
It’s All Good, But Early
These are positive signs, but it’s still very early. Measuring a big event like a debate usually takes about ten days. High-rated pollsters like the New York Times/Siena have yet to release their post-debate surveys. We need to see some battleground state polls.
I was skeptical that the polls would shift dramatically. America is very polarized. Most persuadable voters won’t watch the debate, and Trump’s coalition won’t abandon him over one bad debate. Thus far, that’s what the polls communicate. Small shifts in Harris’s favor, but nothing significant yet. Some polls, like the ABC News/Ipsos poll, showed no movement at all.
Pfeiffer points out that this is typical for a first debate. Apparently, even June’s Biden-Trump debacle only moved the polls about 1.7 in Trump’s direction. (The difference being that Democrats were horrified and didn’t sugar coat it while the Republicans have doubled down on the fatuous BS that Trump actually won it.)
And the polls did show substantial movement in one very important area that can be critical in a close election:
[T]he most positive news in the polling is not in the head-to-head numbers. The debate improved perceptions of Harris. In theCNN post-debate poll, Harris’s favorability rating went up six points. In the ABC News/Ipsos poll, 37% said the debate made them think more favorably about Kamala Harris. Only 17% said that about Trump.
That 17% must have been drunk.
Harris is still introducing herself to the public. Gaining in approval is key right now. In fact, in most polls she’s the only one of Trump, Vance, and Biden with a positive approval rating now with room to grow. That’s good news.
Polling will make you crazy right now. These close elections are ulcer inducing. But as the pundits always say, “I’d rather be us than them” right now. Let’s hope it holds up and she can get over the line in those all-important swing states.