You’ll recall that a few weeks ago I wrote about Thomas Miller, the data scientist who has a different way of measuring voter sentiment based upon the betting markets and some other things. His method has been quite successful over the past few cycles apparently. It seems like more soothsaying mumbo jumbo to me, to be honest but as we try to get through this next month I figure it can’t hurt to add it to the polling parlor game.
Here’s what he’s saying right now: Harris has a lead in the electoral college and it’s pretty solid:
Miller found that the campaign’s turning point was Trump’s appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists convention on July 31, when he suggested that Harris had mislead voters about her race. Prior to that gaffe, Trump was running at around 290 electoral votes, 20 more than the number needed to win. The day following the NABJ event, Harris bolted into the lead, and she’s stayed in front ever since. Trump briefly pulled nearly even just before their debate on September 10. Days earlier, Trump got a lift, courtesy of a New York State judge’s decision on to delay sentencing in the GOP standard-bearer’s hush money case until after the election. “On September 10, Trump stood at 261, only 9 short of a win, and Harris had 277,” says Miller. “By the end of the day, Harris had added 35 to get to 312.” Miller also credits Taylor Swift’s endorsement, delivered moments after the candidates left the stage, for giving Harris an added boost.
Harris’ electoral count soared over the next two weeks, climbing to a high point of 337 electoral votes by September 20.
Since Harris achieved that summit, her electoral count has fallen from nearly 340 to the current 302, and Trump’s rebounded from just 201 to 236. But for Miller, that shift doesn’t indicate that Trump’s staging a comeback. He notes that for the past week that spans the VP debate, Harris’ position’s been consistent at just over 300 electoral votes. Most of all, he says, the bettors’ views of who will prevail seem locked in place. And for Trump to regain the White House, a huge share of wagerers must move to his camp.
“I don’t regard Harris’ drop as significant,” says Miller. “Investors in the predictions markets sometimes change their minds, but not many of them are doing that.” He points to the low volumes on PredictIT. “The last time we saw a spike was at the moment of the debate and Swift endorsement,” he adds. “There was a little uptick for Trump after the VP debate, but the last significant event for moving the odds was the presidential debate. Now, most people aren’t changing their bets, they’re keeping their contracts in place.”
By basic electoral math, says Miller, Harris as of today holds a lock on most of the big swing states, looking like a sure winner in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. He adds that Harris also had Georgia in her column when she reached 337 EVs at the apex of her post-debate climb on September 20. Now, he says the modest Trump bump has put the Peach State back in play, and that Trump also stands a good chance in North Carolina. But for now, the states that have loomed as most pivotal since the race began remain beyond his reach.
The world’s gotten a lot more dangerous in the last few days as the dock workers’ strike threatens to hike the likes of grocery prices and the mideast teeters on the brink of widespread warfare. Big events could still change the course of this election. But for now, Harris is in command, says Miller. The betting sites get it, and predictably, the polls lag far behind the curve. According to the bettors, Trump blew a nice lead by stumbling before the NABJ and botched a budding comeback by floundering at the debate. He may need a watershed moment or a Harris screwup to turn the race around. It could happen. But the bettors doubt it will happen, and as Miller’s shown, the bettors are best at cutting through the fog of polling and pundits, and getting elections right.
Remember, nobody knows nothin’. The polling is dicey and this is probably even dicier. This election is inexplicably close and there is a lot going on. Certainly, Donald Trump did not want people to be talking about January 6th right now. And Harris didn’t need a longshoreman strike as an October surprise. But if you are a poll addict, as I am, consider this a little methadone (hopedone?) for the morning. I won’t get you high but you might feel a little bit better.