I wrote about the Harris strategy of reaching out to disaffected Republicans last week and it wasn’t exactly universally applauded. A lot of Democrats aren’t happy with all the accolades given to the likes of Liz Cheney and I can understand that. I guess my feeling is that this election is so vital that whatever it takes to cobble together a coalition to get Harris over the line is worth doing.
I have no worries that disgruntled Democrats will vote for Trump or stay home because of this so in the short run I’m confident that this won’t cost votes. We can argue about policy later — and I’m pretty sure there are going to be some arguments.
For now, it appears that the strategy may be working. The Bulwark reports on the ever elusive “Haley voters” with an exclusive survey. (Haley herself is an absolute disgrace, appearing on Fox, making the case against Harris.)
If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win just 45 percent of those who backed Haley in the GOP primary while 36 percent said they’d back Harris, the new poll shows, according to the survey of 781 registered Republicans and independents conducted by the new Democratic-leaning polling outfit Blueprint. The poll did not include Democrats or Democrat-leaning Independents who supported Haley.
Trump’s level of support from Haley voters in the poll represents a significant drop in support for Trump, who won those same voters against Joe Biden by 59-28 percent. That 22 percentage point change in preference (from plus 31 percent for Trump in 2020 to plus 9 percent in this survey) could represent a swing of millions of votes.
The findings are among the most substantive analyses of Haley supporters. They come on the heels of a New York Times/Siena College poll showing that Harris has made major inroads among GOP voters, with 9 percent saying they planned to support the vice president, up from 5 percent from a survey last month.
“Between 5 and 10 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents are Nikki Haley supporters,” said Evan Roth Smith, the lead pollster for Blueprint, which conducted the poll between September 28 and October 6. “If Harris can indeed win a third or more of them in the general election, it will provide a boost of a couple percentage points. In such a close race where the margin of victory will be razor-thin, particularly in the swing states, it’s clearly worth pursuing these voters.”
If that pans out it will have been worth it.