And because she asked
Don’t hold me to these back-of-the-napkin figures, but an out-of-state friend asked this morning if Hurricane Helene was impacting voter turnout here in Asheville. Here’s how I replied (edited to add post-coffee clarity):
Current statewide registration: Ds: 31%, Rs: 30%, UNAffiliated (registered independents): 38%
Despite the lines we saw on Th and Fr (my tweet has almost 10 million views), turnout is down about a third from 2020. The hurricane took out 4 of our planned 14 early voting sites and shortened daily voting hours to 9-5 in this county. We’ve got new voting machines adding to slowing the process. Can’t speak to other WNC counties.
But despite that depressed vote and a strong first-day vote by Republicans here, we seem back to our normal pattern of Ds outvoting Rs in Buncombe County by over 2:1. What’s more (recognize UNAffiliated registrants statewide have overtaken Ds & Rs since 2020), the UNA vote is UP in Buncombe almost 40% (over Rs by 2:1) from 2020, and in this county they vote with Ds by 56%. But I warn freshman candidates: Republicans bat last.
Turnout will be determinative across North Carolina, but not D turnout. Ds statewide are outvoting Rs by only 12k votes as of Saturday and nearly 300k UNAs have voted (31% of votes cast by 38% of the registrants). But UNAs don’t vote with Democrats statewide. They voted 58% against Democrats in both 2020 and 2022. UNA turnout in our big, blue counties will decide our electoral vote. Under 45 they lean heavily our way, but don’t vote. (See graphic.) I’m hoping Anderson Clayton (26) can get a big boost out of the 30-and-unders. Just don’t get me started on why Ds won’t think outside the box and target more of the friendly UNAs for GOTV. I have tried, both here (and in AZ).
Note how NC registration has changed since January when it was Democrats: 33%, Republicans: 30%, UNAffiliateds: 36%. That UNA spike may reflect a bump in younger voters that Old North State Politics noticed after Kamala Harris became the Democrats’ presumptive nominee. Total registration in NC is up 5% since January. But like “signs don’t vote,” registrations don’t either. People who vote vote. And Early Voting Data Are Not Predictive of Final Election Outcomes.
Michael Bitzer wrote on August 6:
Before July 21, registered Republicans were ahead of Democrats, but Unaffiliateds dominated both (with the one exception of July 14th with the GOP spike). After July 21, registered Democrats took the advantage over Republicans, with Unaffiliateds still dominating.
This unaffiliated dominance isn’t surprising, simply due to who is registering: namely, Millennials and Generation Z, who are more likely than not to register non-partisan.
In North Carolina, non-partisan is UNAffiliated, and Millennials and Generation Z are under 45. And over half of voters roughly 45 and younger identify as independents. The question is will those young-uns (new registrants and existing) turn out where it counts for Democrats: in urban precincts where UNAs lean heavily blue? Will Democrats’ turnout operations target enough of these (from their database’s perspective) relative “unknowns”?
As I’ve said before of urban UNAs who don’t turn out like their voting UNA neighbors:
Chicken or egg? Are these lower-propensity voters not turning out like their independent neighbors because they are simply less-engaged? Or because Democrats are not engaging them?
We’ll know soon enough.