Dr. David Kessler ran Operation Warp Speed and is a very well known public health expert going all the way back to the George H.W. Bush administration. He is concerned:
I was the Biden administration’s chief science officer during Covid-19. I was co-leader of Operation Warp Speed, which began in Mr. Trump’s first term to accelerate the development of Covid-19 vaccines. I worked on the purchase and rollout of hundreds of millions of vaccines and on developing antiviral treatments. One of my jobs was to assess the trajectory of the virus.
Now I am back at my job teaching at the medical school at the University of California, San Francisco. I have been monitoring the spread of bird flu, also known as H5N1, and discussing the situation with colleagues around the country. My concern is growing.
So far, there have been no reports of person-to-person spread of H5N1, though there have been at least 55 confirmed cases of bird flu in humans in the United States, almost entirely among poultry and dairy workers. Those infections are presumed to be primarily the result of contact with animals. In addition, a child in Alameda County in California with minor respiratory symptoms tested positive for H5N1 recently; it is unclear how the child became infected. There are likely other cases out there that are not being diagnosed.
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Here is where matters stand: The most recent risk assessment from the Johns Hopkins Center for Outbreak Response Innovation, issued on Nov. 19, listed the risk of infection to farm workers as high, and the risk of infection to people in contact with affected farm workers and animals as moderate. The Hopkins report said that “while the immediate risk to the general public and health care workers is still currently low, the long-term consequences of continued, uncontrolled transmissions presents a high risk to all populations.”
California has recently seen a significant rise in detections of H5N1 in dairy herds. Experts believe that animals at as many as half the dairy farms in California are infected. That is why it is important to pasteurize milk, which kills the virus. (All milk sold across state lines is pasteurized; 30 states allow the in-state sale of nonpasteurized milk, which is labeled “raw.”) Two states, Colorado and Pennsylvania, have agreed to test pooled milk from all farms before pasteurization to monitor spread. Bulk milk testing should be mandatory in all states with dairy farms to determine the full extent of the infection on these farms and also allow us to contain the virus. As if to underline the importance of such a mandate, bird flu was detected in raw milk bought retail last Thursday from a dairy producer based in Fresno, Calif.
Without mandatory testing, bird flu will continue circulating at farms across the country, which substantially increases the risk that the virus mutates and evolves to allow a human-to-human transmission that will be hard to stop.
There will be no mandatory testing of anything under the Trump administration. Even saying it is like waving a red flag. The word “mandatory” is a curse word, particularly when it comes to pubic health. California will probably do it, if they aren’t already. But this is a big country and this sort of thing can’t be confined to any one state.
No one knows how many mutations will be required to set off human-to- human respiratory spread. That could require many mutations and may never happen. But we could also be just two or three mutations away. If the virus begins to transmit efficiently among humans, it will be very difficult to contain, according to the Johns Hopkins assessment, and “the likelihood of a pandemic is very high.”
The incoming Trump administration needs to be prepared.
That’s not happening. They weren’t prepared the last time and they won’t be this time either, particularly with the new travelling freak show at HHS.
Maybe it won’t happen. But if David Kessler is concerned we should be too.