Vance: "The Ukrainians and the Russians are both gonna have to give up some of the territory they currently own. There's gonna have to be some territorial swaps." pic.twitter.com/eL0tbrNOAX
— The Bulwark (@BulwarkOnline) April 23, 2025
Except according to the plan Russia ends up with the huge chunks of Ukraine it obtained through invasion. It doesn’t “own” any of it.
Back in the Reagan years, neocon Jeanne Kirkpatrick famously insulted liberals being the “blame America first crowd.” Trump has turned that on its head by being the most “blame America first” leader in history, blaming all of his predecessors for allegedly destroying America. (He does this mostly because he doesn’t understand the issues so he simply does the opposite of them.)
He also has the habit of blaming Ukraine for Russia’s actions such as when he eagerly embraced the nonsensical conspiracy theory (told to him by his friend Vlad, of course) that it was Ukraine that did the election interference in 2016 on behalf of Hillary Clinton.
And he continues to blame Ukraine for the war with Russia and he doesn’t seem to be backing off on that:
The “deal” they are proposing is predictably one-sided:
The one-page document the U.S. presented Ukrainian officials in Paris last week describes this as President Trump’s “final offer.” The White House insists it’s ready to walk away if the parties don’t make a deal soon.
- Trump’s proposal would require major concessions from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who previously ruled out accepting Russia’s occupation of Crimea and parts of four regions in eastern Ukraine.
- And while Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly offered to freeze the current front lines in order to reach a deal, he has previously rejected other elements of the U.S. framework, such as a European peacekeeping force on Ukrainian territory.
- A source close to the Ukrainian government said Kyiv sees the proposal as highly biased towards Russia: “The proposal says very clearly what tangible gains Russia gets, but only vaguely and generally says what Ukraine is going to get.”
What Russia gets under Trump’s proposal
- “De jure” U.S. recognition of Russian control in Crimea.
- “De-facto recognition” of the Russia’s occupation of nearly all of Luhansk oblast and the occupied portions of Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
- A promise that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO. The text notes that Ukraine could become part of the European Union.
- The lifting of sanctions imposed since 2014.
- Enhanced economic cooperation with the U.S., particularly in the energy and industrial sectors.
There’s no surprise there. Trump thought he could just threaten Ukraine with U.S. withdrawal on the day after the election and Zelensky would immediately drop to the floor and begin licking his boots while his good pal Vlad agreed to a phony “ceasefire” in order for him to win the Nobel peace prize. He was mistaken. But he’s still intent upon punishing Ukraine which he believes screwed him over in his first term (he hates Zelensky) and help out his buddy so the U.S. can do some bad “deals” he can pretend will benefit the United States.
I’m not sure what will happen now but it appears that we’re finally at the moment we knew was coming: the abandonment of Ukraine. It’s possible that Europe can fill the void but it will be difficult especially with the U.S. likely lifting sanctions against Russia and essentially coming in on its side economically. It was always going to happen.