According to a number of polls, including this new one from G. Elliot Morris (it’s well worth subscribing to his new site) there are some regretful 2024 voters out there and many of them are people who failed to vote. They now say they would have voted for Harris.
But apparently, there are also some regretful Trump voters. Vox reports:
Across a range of polling averages and survey data, a similar picture is developing. Black, Latino, and young voters are turning sharply against him, reversing the gains he made throughout 2024 with traditionally Democratic voting groups.
Trump created a multiracial, working-class, Republican coalition. But just three and a half months into this presidency, that coalition looks like it’s falling apart.
Trump was elected president in no small part because his campaign’s unconventional wager paid off. His team bet that by focusing on the economy, inflation, and immigration — and by bringing that message to non-traditional media platforms and to places where Republicans typically struggle — they might activate a coalition of the disaffected.
It worked in November. But now, his perceived inability to deliver on this seems to be fueling the great unraveling of this coalition. Trump’s overall job approval and personal favorability ratings have steadily dropped, largely because voters disapprove of and distrust his handling of the economy.
[…]
[S]ince the start of his term, Trump has seen the sharpest drops in his job approval ratings among those cohorts of voters who swung hard for him in November: Latino voters (a roughly 13 percent drop), Black voters (a 9 percent drop), young voters (-23 percent), independents (-18), and moderates (-15), according to polls aggregated and analyzed by the former political pollster Adam Carlson.
Low-engagement voters — those people who don’t pay a lot of attention to the news — swung hard for Trump in November. Now, they have similarly soured on Trump, swinging more than 30 points away from him since January, according to another set of averages calculated by the data journalist G. Elliott Morris.
And the least MAGA, less ideological Trump voters who turned out for him last year are also much more likely to disapprove of Trump today than they were in February. According to the most recent Pew Research Center study, Trump’s standing among his voters who did not support him strongly has fallen by about 13 percentage points over the last three months. His support among his most enthusiastic supporters, meanwhile, has stayed steady — essentially unchanged at 96 percent (it was 99 percent in February).
These trends suggest real dissatisfaction among the electorate in general, but specifically a sharp shift among the newest members of the Republican coalition. They took a bet on Trump, believed his promises about making life more affordable and moderating perceived policy excesses of the Biden years, and feel duped, betrayed, or let down by an administration that seems to be taking a much more radical approach to their campaign promises than they expected.
And these voters aren’t hard to find.
Democrats need to start working on that right now. It’s possible that Trump is so unpopular that they’ll come out to vote for Democrats anyway but that’s a big risk. Democrats are ciphers at best right now. They must find a way to get their attention and convince them that they have learned their lessons and are ready to be their champions.