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Equivocating Strongly, Very Strongly

As with everything else, Trump doesn’t know what to do. So he’s dithering as events take on a life of their own. I suspect that unless Israel decides its in its interest to just back off, in the end Trump will say what he said with the J6 rioters: “fuck it” — drop the bombs.

People who think of themselves as MAGA leaders are unhappy:

For the few months of this administration, they appeared to have gained remarkable sway. The America Firsters were deeply influential in staffing the new administration. And when it came to Iran, Trump seemed to be following their counsel. For the first time, he pursued talks with Iran over its nuclear program, instead of the “maximum pressure” sanctions approach of his first term.

Yet the hawks — strongly supportive of Israel, very hostile to Iran, and very skeptical any nuclear deal could be reached — remain very strong in the GOP. Every Republican senator except one (Rand Paul of Kentucky) signed a letter demanding Iran not be permitted any nuclear enrichment. Their belief is that Iran can never be “allowed” to go nuclear — that the US must stop it, by force if necessary.

When I interviewed Carlson earlier this month (before the Israeli strikes), he disputed this logic. He argued that since Pakistan already had nuclear weapons, “It’s not without precedent that another Islamic nation gets the bomb.” And he argued that a war to try and stop Iran from getting nukes would be “a true disaster” and “would not stay in Iran, of course.”

Carlson added ominously:

“Washington knew these attacks would happen,” Carlson added. “They aided Israel in carrying them out. Politicians purporting to be America First can’t now credibly turn around and say they had nothing to do with it.”

The rift in the MAGA coalition is pretty big although we’re not seeing it in the congressional delegation. This exchange between Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz shows the extent of the rift.

I don’t think Tucker really buys what he’s saying but he’s all in on the anti-war asshole image and he doesn’t have much choice.

Get some popcorn. This is going to be interesting.

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