Does Elon’s new 3rd party have a chance? G. Elliott Morris crunched some numbers:
For those getting caught up: After being frustrated by the increase in the federal budget deficit that Republicans have caused with their “One Big Beautiful Bill,” the richest man in the world last week declared independence from the two-party system. He ran an insta-poll on Twitter to assess support for a new political party, which received 80% of votes, and subsequently announced he was forming one. He calls it the “America Party.”
According to Musk’s social media posts, the movement will draw support from people who want to shrink government spending, are disillusioned with the two-party system, and think the Democrats are too ”woke.” Musk has taken increasingly strong stances against Donald Trump in recent weeks, making opposition to the president — or even soft support, relative to Musk’s — another cornerstone of the party agenda.
Musk appears to be serious about making the America Party work. In recent days, he has sought the advice of Andrew Yang, founder of the pro-electoral reform Forward Party (as of 2025, it has won one state legislative race) and the right-wing thinker Curtis Yarvin (here’s a Guardian interview from before he got a rebrand for the NYT). Yarvin is famous for saying U.S. democracy needs to be overthrown via violent coup and replaced with a so-called “corporate monarchy.” Strange bedfellows. Yang and Yarvin.
Alright, but is this really going anywhere? What is the constituency for (1) cutting spending, (2) opposing Trump, (3) liking Musk, and (4) otherwise being centrist?
I would think that an huge appetite for space travel, ketamine, Naziism and impregnating random women would be on the list too but Morris wanted to keep it simple:
That leaves Musk with a whopping 0.75% of the American public, which corresponds to just 36 out of 4,855 registered voters who took the ANES in 2024.
That’s the coalition for a party that is (a) generally anti-spending, (b) not the Democratic or Republican Party, (c) anti-Trump, and (d) pro-Musk.
Nobody is building a successful third party with less than 1% of voters. Musk will need to make serious inroads with Americans to make it work. He is starting from the absolute bottom.
In a polarized electorate he could still be a spoiler, of course. The Green Party could give him some pointers. They’ve already spoiled two elections for the Democrats. But I have no assurance that his project would do the same for the Republicans. The right has shown little appetite for this in the past. If anything Musk’s party could end up appealing to more disaffected Democrats who loathe and despise their own party. That’s kind of how we roll. But it still wouldn’t be enough to win anything unless enabling Republicans is the real goal.
Is it?