He promised to fix it. But he didn’t….
Americans say it’s harder to afford their groceries now than it was a year ago, a warning sign for President Trump and Republicans, in the latest Axios Vibes survey by The Harris Poll.
Why it matters: Everyone’s gotta eat. High food prices disproportionately impact working-class voters, the very people Trump promised lower grocery prices on the campaign trail a year ago.
- Just 1 in 5 respondents say it’s easier to afford groceries now than this time last year; nearly half say it’s harder, while 1 in 3 say it’s about the same.
The big picture: 8 in 10 Americans say they believe the president has “significant influence” over the U.S. economy, but just 47% say the Trump administration has had a positive impact on the economy this year.
What they’re saying: “The midterms might hinge on a ‘Cleanup on Aisle 4!’ ” said John Gerzema, CEO of The Harris Poll.
- “It’s such a visible signal that life is harder today than it was even last year when we were in an election cycle,” Gerzema said of grocery bills. Respondents “don’t feel like things are changing fast enough. This is going to be a significant issue for the president.”
Trump says it’s all Biden’s fault so never mind. In fact, he says prices on groceries are actually lower. Ok:
Reality check: Three factors appear be contributing to Americans’ discontent over those higher prices.
- Prices for certain staple items many people consume nearly every day have risen much more than the average, including ground beef (up 12.8% in the past year), eggs (up 10.9%) and coffee (up 20.9%).
- Moreover, the price rises now are coming on top of earlier price surges in the 2021-2022 period, which slowed down in 2023 and 2024 but never reversed. Over the last five years, grocery prices have risen by more than 30%.
- The job market is weaker and wages aren’t rising as quickly as they were earlier in this economic cycle, so any given rise in grocery bills may pinch harder than it did when employers were racing to give employees wages.
Zoom out: This is part of a broader phenomenon in which consumer sentiment and confidence data is depressed, despite many measures of well-being — the unemployment rate, the stock market, GDP growth — looking pretty good.
Tariffs weigh on sentiment
By the numbers: Less than 1 in 3 say Trump’s tariffs have been good for the U.S. economy, U.S. businesses or personal finances; 63% worry about shortages of key goods they rely on due to tariffs.
- Less than half (47%) say 2025 has been a better year than 2024. Nearly two-thirds (65%) say they’re financially squeezed each month.
I think Trump is planning on simply blaming Biden and the Democrats for everything and assuming people will believe it. But one of the downsides of being so ubiquitous and doing so much right in everyone’s faces is that it’s made the Biden administration feel like it happened a decade ago. I don’t think that’s going to work much longer.
Whether this inflation will be enough to break this electoral log jam is yet to be determined. But I do remember a time not really so long ago when the price of eggs had people very upset, so upset that they were willing to vote to put a known criminal back in the White House to fix it. Will they be upset enough to toss out his accomplices next year?