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2026 Looms

Good morning,

The Democrats currently have a 14-point lead against the Republicans among registered voters nationally on the 2026 generic congressional ballot question. This has changed considerably. Since 2022, voters have divided about which party’s candidate they would support. Asked at the tail end of the nation’s longest government shutdown, a plurality of Americans say they place most of the blame for the shutdown on congressional Democrats. However, President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans do not walk away unscathed, with six in ten blaming either the President or the GOP in Congress.

  • A majority of registered voters nationally (55%) say they would support the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, if the 2026 congressional elections were held today. 41% would support the Republican, and 3% would back another candidate. Among independents, the Democrats (61%) have a +33-point advantage over the Republicans (28%).
  • This is the first time in more than three years that Democrats have had a notable advantage on the congressional generic ballot question. When last asked in November of 2024, registered voters divided, 48% to 48%. The last time the Democrats had a noteworthy advantage on this question was in June of 2022 when the Democrats were +7 among registered voters.
  • 39% of Americans blame the Democrats in Congress for the government shutdown. 34% place responsibility on President Trump, and 26% blame congressional Republicans.
  • While 80% of Republicans blame congressional Democrats, 49% of Democrats blame President Trump. An additional 40% of Democrats point a finger at the Republicans in Congress. Among independents, 41% blame President Trump; 32% blame the Republicans in Congress, and 27% blame the congressional Democrats.
  • President Trump’s job approval rating among Americans is 39%, down slightly from 41% in September. 56% of Americans disapprove of the job the President is doing in office. This compares with 53%, previously.
  • 26% of Americans say they strongly approve of the job President Trump is doing while 48% strongly disapprove.

There’s more here.

I don’t think I need to comment other than to say that Trump’s king act may not be the hit he thinks it is.

Update — More bad news for Trumpie

 President Donald Trump’s approval rating fell to 38%, the lowest since his return to power, with Americans unhappy about his handling of the high cost of living and the investigation into the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

The survey showed Trump’s overall approval has fallen two percentage points since a Reuters/Ipsos poll in early November.

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