It’s not the economy stupid
by digby
Americans are a very religious people and this day is one of our most precious days of worship: we believe in shopping. The malls are our cathedrals, and the ritual of standing in line to buy garbage we don’t need is our greatest act of devotion. But as you watch the news media try to spin this as a prediction of economic strength, as they do on every “black Friday”, keep this in mind:
[S]ales over Thanksgiving weekend tell us virtually nothing about retail sales for the full holiday season—let alone anything meaningful about the economy as a whole. Paul Dales of Capital Economics analyzed the relationship between retail sales during the week of Thanksgiving against the overall change in retail sales for November through January. As the chart shows, the relationship is a very weak one, with dots all over the grid. But if there is any conclusion to draw at all, the relationship is actually negative! (That’s why the line is sloping downward).
In other words, strong sales results around Black Friday actually predict slightly weaker holiday sales overall. (Shhh. Don’t tell the people who lined up at Target last night that they aren’t actually bellweathers for the U.S. economy).
It is what it is — a pious commitment to our one true God: consumerism, nothing more nothing less.
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