Wasting Away
by David Atkins (“thereisnospoon”)
Gallup brings news that Americans now believe that over half of all dollars spent by the federal government are “wasted”:
Americans estimate that the federal government wastes 51 cents of every dollar it spends, a new high in a Gallup trend question first asked in 1979.
The current estimate of 51 cents wasted on the dollar is similar to what Gallup measured in 2009, but marks the first time Americans believe more than half of federal spending is wasted. The low point in the trend is 38 cents wasted on the dollar, in 1986.
Americans are less likely to believe state and local governments waste money they spend than they are to believe this about the federal government, with the state estimate at 42 cents on the dollar and the local at 38 cents.
Americans have viewed the federal government as being the most wasteful of tax dollars — and local government the least — each time Gallup has asked these questions. That pattern is consistent with Americans’ greater trust in state and local government than in the federal government.
Over time, though, Americans have become increasingly likely to see all levels of government as being wasteful of tax dollars. Americans now believe all levels of government waste at least 11 cents more on the dollar compared with 1979.
Perhaps most interesting about Gallup’s graph is this: from 1979 to 1981, the percentage the number of cents on the dollar that Americans figured was wasted by the federal government rose from 40 cents to 45 cents. That’s a big jump considering the trendline, and fairly clearly reflects the power of Ronald Reagan’s rhetoric to change public opinion about government spending. Even those who lately claim that the Presidential and campaign speeches accomplish nothing in the realm of public opinion would be hard-pressed to deny it in this case. But also problematic for progressives is that from around 1981 to 1986, the waste figure shrinks to just 38 cents on the dollar by 1986. Assuming that this isn’t all statistical noise, these numbers suggest that Americans figured that the Reagan Administration really was cutting “wasteful” spending, or at least that Reagan was providing a better bang for the public’s buck.
But then something curious happens starting in 1986: the number of cents on the dollar Americans perceive as wasted starts a slow, gradual ascent trending all the way to the present day. The slow upward climb transcends Democratic and Republican administrations alike.
The likeliest culprit? Increased partisanship and gridlock. After all, perceptions of wasteful spending have trended upward even as the ideological makeup of those who believe the spending is wasted shifts based on which political party is in power:
The ideological differences observed this year were not apparent in 2001, when Republican George W. Bush was president. At that time, liberals estimated a larger share of federal spending was wasted than conservatives did, 48 cents to 44. Thus, one’s perceptions of how much federal spending is wasted depend partly on the match between a person’s ideological preferences and the prevailing power structure in Washington.
Which means that as each side blames the other for waste even as the plight of the middle class increases, a growing number on both sides are apt to say that Washington is wasting their tax dollars.
Ironically but predictably, the slice of voters likeliest to see waste is elderly conservatives (most of whom are likely to be on wasteful federal Medicare money):
Senior citizens’ estimate of wasted federal dollars ranks with conservatives’ as one of the highest, and is significantly greater than that of Americans aged 18 to 29.
Additionally, those with more formal education estimate proportionately less federal government waste than do Americans with less education.
What does it all add up to? Well, it’s fairly clear that as the Democratic Party shifted away from middle-class concerns in the 1990s and the Republicans ballooned the deficit on pointless war and tax cuts for the rich while making it impossible for Democrats to accomplish much of anything, the public’s trust in government has eroded gradually and significantly. Meanwhile, older conservatives have become increasingly radicalized.
That works out very nicely for conservatives in the short term. Destroying the public’s faith in the power of government to do good is their calling card.
If Democrats want to reverse the trend, they would do well to communicate their commitment to addressing middle-class concerns, and to giving the public the best possible bang for their tax dollar in the form of jobs and highly visible infrastructure building. Overseas commitments should be scaled back, as should tax cuts for the wealthy and unpopular conservative boondoggles like No Child Left Behind.
The Obama Administration’s new plan is hitting on most of these themes, which is a welcome change. But to convince the public, those promises would have to be backed up by action. Time will tell if Democrats can restore the public’s faith, should they be fortunate enough to hold onto the White House and win back the Speaker’s gavel.
One thing is for sure, though: the Obama Administration’s second term would need to look, act and feel significantly more aggressive on all these fronts than its first term has been heretofore. President Obama still has the power to use the rhetorical command of the Presidency to be a progressive Ronald Reagan and restore America’s confidence in its government. If everyone plays their cards right, Democrats should be able to make a dent in Gallup’s rising trendline on waste.
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