Counting On Sanity
by digby
Ed Kilgore has a smart post up today about the meaning of the Republican hard right turn. Among other interesting things he says this:
The role of the Tea Party movement in this rightward shift was significant, but it was not ubiquitous. And if, like me, you think the Tea Partiers are simply a mobilized bloc of conservative Republican voters, focusing on their role as if it were some sort of independent force is a chimera. What we have actually witnessed this year is the final victory in a Fifty Year War waged by the conservative movement for control of the Republican Party. The timing of this rightward lurch is remarkable, given that the usual practice of parties which have recently lost multiple elections is to “move to the center.” And, barring some miracle, an electoral triumph for this newly hard-right Republican Party will almost certainly render the transformation semi-permanent, confirming, as it will, the longstanding belief held by “movement conservatives” that excessive moderation—usually defined as any moderation—hurts Republicans politically.
I think that’s right. And it couldn’t happen at a worse time for the country since we are in a great period of transition and change and the economic and national security policies we adopt now will have profound repercussions well into the future. The policies these people believe in are wrong headed and dangerous. And their culture warriors are starting to exert themselves in new and unexpected ways as well, and in a stressful era like this one, very unpredictable things can happen.
Kilgore thinks the real proof will be in the post election pudding:
In the long run, though, the real test of this year’s conservative triumph will occur immediately after November 2. Whether it’s a matter of Republicans in Congress being forced to write a budget or of Republican presidential candidates having to come up with a positive message and agenda, they will not long enjoy the luxury of moving to the right without consequences. If they take control of the House and begin investigations and maybe impeachment proceedings against the president, their craziness will be apparent. And in 2012, they will face a very different electorate than the old-white-voter–skewed midterm crowd of 2010.
Perhaps. Let’s hope so. But because of the way the Democrats inevitably react to these hard right turns, the political center of gravity will be moved right once again. Indeed, I believe that one of the conservative movement’s greatest strengths is its consistent ability to pull the country rightward even when they are out of power. I think this is because of their willingness to push the envelope and stick with it long enough for the public and the village to get used to it. They never stop pushing and over time, through wins and losses both, their agenda and their worldview is advanced.
But this time could actually be worse. In my view, the combination of economic stress, a fully operational grassroots and astroturf movement and a very efficient propaganda machine could bring about a severe lurch rather than a strong pull to the right. These aren’t ordinary times. Without the Democrats exerting a steady counter balance, anything could happen.
Kilgore points out that the Democrats are playing a different game, appealing to moderation and successfully keeping its left flank under wraps. Under normal circumstances that might seem to be the smart move. But I wouldn’t be so sanguine about that. In a time of crisis, when one of the parties in a two party system is a radical, destructive force whose main claim to power is that it will stop anything the majority wants to do (thus proving that government can’t do anything)being a moderate, non-confrontational alternative may not be enough to fight them off.
In any case, I agree with Kilgore that we are coming to the destination of the wingnuts’ Long March. If they are able to throw off stalwart hit men like Karl Rove, it’s hard to imagine they are going to be stopped by a bunch of squishy Democrats trying hard to split the difference. But it looks like we’re going to find out.
Update: Tonight on the Newshour I heard Democratic strategist Steve McMahon, GOP strategist Kevin Madden and Tea Party strategist Matt Kibbe all agreeing that the electorate is gathering around the very popular issues of small government and low taxes and eliminating the deficit. All of them.
Kevin Madden explained that the Tea Party is the great middle of the American political spectrum and warned that Democrats derided them and their philosophy at their peril. McMahon agreed.
See how that works?
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