A Democratic Era

by digby

All through this election cycle I’ve been featuring reports from an insider I call “Deep Insight.” This is the final one:

Democracy is coming to the USA
Leonard Cohen

With one week left to go before the election, it certainly looks like a greater measure of accountability will arrive soon. Of course after the last eight years of government by oligarchy, cronyism and rightwing ideology, any democratic accountability would be novel. George Bush is the proximate cause of a putative federal progressive majority after November 4th.

It is obvious the political landscape has been radically altered in the last month. The meltdown in the capital markets and the freeze of the credit markets has led a Republican Administration to nationalize a significant portion of the mortgage industry, a major insurer, and “invest” in the major banks. The explosion of unregulated portions of the capital markets was predicted years ago by major financial figures like Warren Buffett and George Soros, but the government waited until the unraveling was well underway. Alan Greenspan, the disciple of “philosopher” Ayn Rand, was “shocked” about problems with credit default swaps and the greed of Wall Street. Of course as Fed Chief, he fought vigorously against any new regulation of financial markets. The malfeasance and crime on Wall Street has claimed many innocent victims worldwide. The current blurred line between Goldman Sachs and the Treasury Department is also very unsettling.

The public is reacting in both disbelief and anger as retirement savings are washed away. Any economic progress over the past several years has been revealed as a Potemkin village. Median wages already lower than in 2000, will head lower. Five million more Americans are below the poverty line than in 2000. Real hardship is underway for many.

The economic upheaval has driven George Bush’s approval rating back into the 20s, far lower than even the number of Americans who believe the words in the Bible are literally true. The country wants him gone now. Nine percent of the public currently thinks the country is on the right track. Again this is an historic number.

Barack Obama is the obvious beneficiary of this shift in the political dynamic. His steady performance in the debates and on the stump has allowed him to pass the threshold for a President. He now easily trumps McCain not only on the “economy” but also on “leadership.” He surpasses the old taunt against FDR by possessing both a first class temperament and a first class mind. Despite all the smears from the GOP, Obama has increased his favorability rating during the course of the year. He is wearing well with the majority of the public.

The financial advantage enjoyed by the Obama campaign is evident both in an unprecedented Election Day operation and the massive communication campaign. At the end of the day, however, any ads pale in importance to the real world unraveling of the GOP ideology. Senator McCain has reaped the whirlwind of conservative economic policy.

McCain’s erratic behavior during the market meltdown raised new doubts about his competence and temperament. At that point, the Presidential race shifted inexorably. Not only did the atmosphere become more toxic for Republicans, but also McCain’s words and actions were somewhat inexplicable except as a media stunt. Karl Rove once remarked that modern politics is TV with the sound off. There is a kernel of truth in this cynical view, and John McCain was damaged both with the sound off and on in three debates. In the most recent New York Times poll, McCain had a 36/45-favorable/unfavorable rating. This judgment incorporates both the public’s consideration of Senator McCain’s temperament and his positions on the issues. He seems to be a very angry man.

Sarah Palin may have excited the evangelical base of the GOP, but her incompetence in answering simple questions from Katie Couric sent many swing voters running for the exits. She was clever to go on Saturday Night Live. She had totally lost control of her public image to Tina Fey, and at least she proved she could take a joke. Maybe she has a show business future, for as long as the teleprompter works, she is persuasive. She exaggerates effectively, in part to hide her extreme views. Her unfavorability rating is now 41%, and she has become a major drag on John McCain. With her pick, he threw the “experience” and “judgment” cards out the window. Some anonymous sources in the McCain camp have already thrown her under the bus. The GOP civil war has begun before a vote is counted.

She and McCain though tag team with their character assaults of Senator Obama. (The current theme is that Obama is a socialist with a history of bad associates and also one who loves welfare.) Some conservative members of Congress have reprised McCarthy era themes. No doubt, the smear campaign against Senator Obama has reinforced some wavering on the right but it has also caused a steady decline in McCain’s favorability ratings. In the Internet age, a lie can be fact checked and rebutted in minutes. The news cycle now is calculated in hours, not days.

Of course when your issue program consists of a continuation of very unpopular policies, one is hemmed in. McCain now makes the argument that only he can stop Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid from driving the nation over the cliff. Unfortunately for this argument, the GOP has already accomplished this plummet.

The Republicans are out of substantive arguments. Fear, lies and misplaced nostalgia are the only arrows left in their quiver. The GOP is now trying to limit the damage through voter suppression. Party operatives and officials are working full time to limit voter participation by Democratic constituencies. Their full tactical suppression arsenal is on display. This will also be the GOP strategy on November 4th, build long lines on Election Day through voter challenges. Democrats and progressive allies have to be prepared for chaos. Florida officials have managed to have 2-hour early voting lines, however early voting in several states has been very heavy and in the Democrats’ favor.

Hopefully more touch screen machines will soon be phased out, since they can be easily hacked. There are already reports of machines in West Virginia registering for McCain when voters are going for Obama. As far as I know, there have been no reports of anyone attempting to vote for a Republican and having the machine register for a Democrat. It certainly makes one wonder. Some day the U.S. may have a safe and convenient registration and election system, say like Canada.

Senator Obama’s showing in the polls has put him consistently near or over 50%. He has maintained a steady 4-6% lead for the last month. This is enough for a clear Electoral College victory. Some polls with the most accurate 2004 records (like Mason Dixon) have the race much closer. No doubt there will be surprises both in the turnout in under polled youth and minorities as well as the drag of those undecided who would not tell a pollster their true feelings about Obama’s race. There is historical evidence involving African American candidates that a large majority of the late undecided voters will likely stay home or vote for McCain. The National Republican Trust is bringing Reverend Wright back with an ad campaign in three swing states.

Down Ballot
Like 1980 this could be the realigning election, as Democrats sweep up and down the ballot. Conservative 527 organizations are outspending Democrats 10-1 in a furious attempt to limit the GOP damage in the House and Senate. The Chamber of Commerce is spending at least $35 million to help Republicans in the Senate. Democrats now appear to have a minimum of five seats in their column and a pick up of seven or eight is in sight.

Senate
In Virginia (Mark Warner) and New Mexico (Tom Udall), the races are over in favor of the Democrats. The Democrats hold single-digit leads in the races in New Hampshire (Shaheen), North Carolina (Kay Hagen, and early voting for Democrats has been very good), Colorado (Mark Udall, who has been subject to millions of negative ads), and Oregon (Jeff Merkley). A third-party candidate complicates Minnesota, but polling has Democrat Al Franken narrowly ahead within the margin of error. Alaska should also be over now that the guilty verdicts for incumbent Republican “Uncle” Ted Stevens are complete. Mississippi is within the margin of error for former Democratic governor Ronnie Musgrove. In Kentucky, Republican Mitch McConnell has plenty of money to hang on to his seat, but he has a spirited challenger. The polling shows only a narrow lead for McConnell. The surprise race is in Georgia where without significant national money Democratic challenger Jim Martin has moved within striking distance of incumbent Saxby Chambliss. Even if Martin falls short, it is forcing the GOP to spend scarce dollars. The only Democrat who was thought to have any difficulty – Mary Landrieu in Louisiana – has a comfortable lead. Obama helps turnout in all these races except possibly Kentucky and Alaska. There needs to be miracle finishes or unusually favorable events in Maine, Nebraska, Kansas or Oklahoma for the underdog Democrats to win there.

House
This is the opportunity to put as many progressives in Congress as possible. The underlying fundamentals have not been so favorable for the Democrats since 1974. Winning any open seats in 2010 will generally be more difficult and expensive. Protecting good incumbents during redistricting in 2012 will also be easier.

There are 50 Republican incumbent or open seats in play in all of which the Republican candidate is under 50%. In 1994, any Democrat who was under 50% after Labor Day lost in November, and the public mood is worse for the GOP now than it was for the Democrats in 1994.

It seems quite possible the Democrats will only lose a couple of their seats. A 25- seat pick up now seems reasonable, and 30 or so new seats are possible. At this point, the Democrats are reaching deep into suburbia and exurbia. Some of the new members may be moderates. But the Republicans these candidates would be replacing, a Robin Hayes in North Carolina or Michelle Bachman in Minnesota, are truly awful. There is real potential for the most liberal White House with the House and Senate since 1965.

The collapsing economy and exploding deficit will likely constrain expensive federal initiatives. There may be only a short window for the Democrats to produce real improvement and opportunity for the majority of the public. This means gains in both the job market and wages. As the remaining Republicans in the next Congress will be even more rightwing, there will be very little cooperation on policy. There will be constant attacks on Democrats as “tax-and-spend” liberals. Even before any potential Obama inaugural, the rightwing communications infrastructure will undermine him.

The Beltway elite however is issuing calls for bi-partisanship. Expect this to be a constant refrain from the Washington Post. This is rich, as the same group was silent as Bush and the rightwing in Congress ran wild for six years. Hopefully a President Obama and the Democrats will respectfully ignore their suggestions. This should be the start of a Democratic era.

Fingers crossed. Knocking on wood. Hoping against hope.

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