Juan Cole On Iran/Hezbolollah Tales

by tristero

Yestereday, I noted some major problems with Michael Gordon’s story “Hezbollah Trains Iraqis in Iran” and I wasn’t the only one. Now, a genuine expert, Juan Cole, weigns in and he echoes our concerns that the story either is totally bogus or the informants were tortured and told their interrogators what they wanted to hear. But Cole goes further, asking, even if the story is true, how important is it? Go here:

The Mahdi Army is tens of thousands of slum kids. Sadrism goes back to the 1990s in Iraq and is a mass movement. Iran had nothing to do with them historically. Moreover, how important is all this? Have, like, 4 Lebanese guys really trained all that many Mahdi Army militiamen? How many exactly? How much more effective would they be as a result? Wouldn’t the political support of millions of Iraqi Shiites in the South really be the source of Muqtada al-Sadr’s power and authority?

What is being alleged is too small to produce a really big, nation-wide effect in Iraq. The Mahdi Army fought the US military for two long hard months in spring of 2004, and for another month in August. Iran was not around.

Occam’s Razor dictates that we do not need Iran as a hypothesis for explaining the Sadr Movement or its activities in Iraq. Behind the scenes opinion polling suggests that the Sadr Movement has become more and more popular with the electorate. This, despite Iran’s having helped buy the election for the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq in 2005. Having gotten their clients in power, why would Iran now try to blow up Badr commanders who have become provincial governors or deputy governors.

In the same post, Cole notes that former president Khatami may have hinted that Iran is, in fact, meddling in the affairs of its neighbors. Or not.

Needless to say the Middle East is a complex place in which the simplistic narratives of the Bush administration and the mainstream media just won’t fit.