The Wave

by digby

I’ve written a lot lately (to some derision from readers) about the fact that I see seismic forces at work in the coming election which I believe are due to conservative movement fatigue and the failure of the Bush administration combined with a perfect storm of issues favoring Democratic solutions. It’s hard for me to see how the Democrats lose it, although I don’t think they should take anything for granted.

But as D-Day has been writing, there’s something else going on too, and that is a rather dramatic shift to the Democratic party among the electorate. Pew has released a study today which shows some demographic shifts that bode very well for the Democratic party.

It is particularly marked among the young:

In surveys conducted between October 2007 and March 2008, 58% of voters under age 30 identified or leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared with 33% who identified or leaned toward the GOP. The Democratic Party’s current lead in party identification among young voters has more than doubled since the 2004 campaign, from 11 points to 25 points.

And the gender gap is widening to truly amazing proportions:

Fully 56% of women identify with or lean toward the Democratic Party, compared with 33% who identify or lean toward the GOP. Since 2004, the Democrats’ lead in party affiliation among women has doubled (from 11 points to 22 points)…currently, the Democrats hold a slight 46%-43% edge among men voters; in 2004, somewhat more male voters were affiliated with or leaned toward the Republican Party than the Democratic Party (by 48% to 43%).

It’s excellent news for the Democratic party and it’s partly why I remain optimistic in spite of the tedious day to day of the primary campaign. As I said, I don’t think you can take anything for granted, but with the issue agenda being what it is and the combination of the Democratic campaigns’ greater use of the modern technology to get the younger voters to the polls and the tremendous appeal to women across all age groups, I just don’t see how this isn’t a win for Democrats.

Read the whole report for a fun discussion of some of the things I brought up the other day in my baby boomer post.

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