Y’Never Know
by tristero
A year from now, we could end up in the middle of a full-blown civil war costing a thousand American lives a month. We could end up taking sides in a shooting war against Turkey, a NATO ally. We could end up fighting off an armed invasion from Iran. We could end up on the receiving of an oil embargo led by Saudi Arabia. Who knows?
Possibly.
Or suddenly tomorrow, the scales could fall from al-Sadr’s eyes, and from Maliki’s, and from everyone else’s, and they would realize that after the horror of the Saddam years, it is simply crazy to fight amongst themselves for control of such a potentially wealthy country like Iraq when there are plenty of petro-dollars (or petro-euros) for everyone.
Or maybe tomorrow Osama bin Laden will get on tv and say, “Mein Gott, what a schmuck I’ve been. After deep study of Torah, and after discovering the joys of matzo ball soup, I’ve decided to convert and become a Lubavitcher. As for my ex-friend Ayman al-Zawahiri, the heretic! He’s renounced all religious belief and become Richard Dawkins personal physician and valet.”
Hey! Y’never know.
Let me put this another way, to make the point clear. I’ll ask, and answer, a rhetorical quesion or two.
Are any of Kevin’s scenarios even remotely plausible?
Yes, mathematically, they are. They could conceivably happen.
Are the scenarios I proposed even remotely plausible?
Yes, mathematically, they are. They could conceivably happen.
Are they of equal plausibility?
No, of course not. Kevin’s scenarios are far more likely than mine.
What is the approximate probability of one of Kevin’s scenarios happening? Of mine?
Roughly 10% to 65% for Kevin. As for mine, roughly .000000000000000001% to .00000000000001%.
Using everyday language, how would you best summarize these probabilities?
It”s somewhat possible, to likely, that one of Kevin’s scenarios may actually turn out to be an accurate prediction. As for you, tristero, it’s never ever gonna happen. Give it up.
How come so many people, including Kevin Drum but more importantly, far more influential people than he, literally thought something close to the exact opposite in 2002/03? How come people believed for even one second that positive outcomes to Bush/Iraq that could never possibly happen (do I really have to add “colloquially speaking” to qualify that assertion?) might happen? Or that a good outcome, however defined, had – at the very least – equal probability to all the tragic scenarios that were somewhat possible to likely?
Beats me. I will be spending the rest of my life trying to answer that question. Maybe someday I’ll learn the answer.
Hey! Y’never know.