Ahh, Bush Is Just Bluffing On The Nukes

by tristero.

The hell he is.

Let’s go back to more innocent times. When I first heard of the New Product (the unilateral, unprovoked invasion and conquest of Iraq), which was nearly nine months before its official release in September ’02, I thought Bush was bluffing. I thought this was just a way to put pressure on Saddam. But by the early summer of ’02, it was quite clear that if this was a bluff, it was one helluva realistic one. Perhaps folks don’t remember, but I distinctly recall that the Bush administratin declared around July that their lawyers had determined Bush had all the authority he needed to order a pre-emptive unilateral strike. He did not have to get permission from Congress, he did not have to go back to the UN. He could just do it. And they were quite sincere-sounding: Bush planned to assert his authority even if it caused a constitutional crisis. The congressional resolutions in the fall were a meaningless rubber stamp; Bush had simply permitted Congress-critters to save face by pretending to decide. By then, it was a fait accompli, and everyone but the American public knew it.

But even that fall, as I was thinking, “He really is gonna do it, he means it, he doesn’t care what anyone says” I held out some hope that this was just one helluva bluff, to bring the inspectors back and so humiliate Saddam he would fall from power and be destroyed. But in late winter, I heard rumors that hospital ships had moved near Iraq. Bush was not bluffing, he was actually going to invade a country that had nothing to do with 9/11 because…well, because he could. It is still the only reason that makes sense. Because he could.

During this time, many folks thought Bush was playing one helluva sophisticated game of chicken. Nope. He wanted war, he wanted bang-bang. And that is exactly what he got.

As for Iran, let me explain: YOU may think it’s highly unlikely – the famous 1% probability, as a commenter mentioned – that Bush won’t use nukes and is setting us up for conventional warfare. That is because you are sane and sensible. But the Bush administration thinks it’s very likely. Hersh is alarmingly clear that there was close to a mutiny at the highest levels of the military recently until the nuclear option was taken off the table vis a vis Iran. Now, do you think it’s still off the table? Don’t be naive. Remember TIA and how it was scuttled? But what’s all this brouhaha I hear about mass data mining of information the Bush administration has no business looking at whatsoever?

Folks, many people have made the mistake of misunderestimating Bush again and again. He can’t be that stupid. He can’t be that vindictive or violent. He can’t be that immature. He can’t be that incapable of remorse or that messianic and delusionally religious.

It’s time to face the fact that Bush is all these things and many more. He has been consistent from the earliest days of his regime – consistently incompetent, delusional, and violent. He does not bluff. He does exactly what he wants to do. And there is nothing he wants more right now than to use nukes on Iran. It’s not merely because he’s a kid with a cool popgun, but one shouldn’t misunderestimate his impulsiveness and immaturity. It’s also because he, and the other rightwing lunatics genuinely believe that since 1945, liberals have severely crippled America by making such a big deal out of nukes. By all means, check out Curtis Lemay’s “America is in Danger” for an historical example (late 60’s) of this delusion. How are we crippled? Well, according to them, by refusing to use nukes, America fights bloody prolonged conflicts that are difficult to conclude with decisive victories.

Bush and his pals wants to save America from liberals that will once again deny America a critical victory, crucial to its safety and security. Bush wants to break the nuclear taboo.

How to stop him? First of all, don’t be fooled or gulled into thinking he’s not serious. He, and they, are very serious indeed. So raise a stink. If we out the nuke strategy prematurely and fuck up its marketing, it may backfire, as a lucky jumping of the gun in Pennsylvania derailed “intelligent design” creationism, which while still around shows some hopeful signs of dying – oh sure, they’ll be back, they’ll always be back, but they gotta craft an entirely new strategy now. In any event, getting the nukes off the table will be much harder.

Secondly, for heavens sake, vote, and vote responsibly. Do not vote for Republicans – as Atrios and others have said, there are no good Republicans: they will do Bush’s bidding if they get in, every last one of them. And remember before you cast that vote for the Ralph Nader clone who says all the right things about class revolution and impeaching the entire judiciary along with the executive, that in the close races between Republicans and Democrats, that righteous sounding reincarnation of Eugene Debs very well may be accepting cash from Republicans intent on splitting the ticket. Vote for the 3rd party candidate if you want to – hell, I’m not a Democrat but an independent, I have no loyalty to the Democratic Party per se – but be responsible, fer crissakes. If there’s even a chance of a Florida 2000 again, do you want to vote for a Nader and get another Bush? I don’t think so (and no, I’m not entirely blaming Nader for the 2000 debacle, but he’s not entirely innocent either).

It looks very likely that the Democrats will get at least one of the houses away from the Republicans. If so, that may be enough to put a stop to Bush’s (nuclear or non-nuclear) invasion of Iran, but it will be very, very hard. With a Republican lock on the government, it will be impossible. Iran will almost surely be invaded and if so, I firmly believe that the chance Bush will use nukes is very high. How high? I don’t know, but hovering too close to the 50-50 mark for comfort. It’s is much higher than 1%. It’s somewhere in the two digits.

Okay, enough, I’ve done my posts on this issue for quite a while. Frankly, it is exhausting to play nuclear Cassandra and terribly painful to watch the same patterns of denial and disbelief play themselves out again. But I also understand how it must sound to the unconvinced among you. It sounds like I’ve gone overboard, succumbed to the delusional paranoia I’m warning you against. I am quite aware that it really is hard to keep in the forefront of one’s mind that Bush and Co. really are nuts enough to use nukes in Iran. And Christ, I hope I’m crazy. But I look back at what he’s done over the past five years – one utter catastrophe after another, the unspeakable, pointless violence – and I am very alarmed.

Just do me a favor, okay?

When Bush is out of office, in January 2009, and the nukes haven’t fallen (and btw, everyone sane and knowledgeable agrees that none are coming our way from Iran by then) let’s laugh together at tristero’s ridiculous terror over the essentially harmless, befuddled fake cowboy George W. Bush was. But until then, please humor me and treat Bush as a very serious…concern… and work to put as many legislative and legal restraints on his wanton presidency as we can this fall.

At the very least, consider the possibility that he really is not bluffing and intends, no matter what, to deploy nuclear weapons, and what that would mean.