Conspiracy Theory

by digby

Kevin Drum makes an interesting observation that I haven’t heard anyone else voice:

British and American counterterrorism agencies have been tracking 50 al-Qaeda (or al-Qaeda-ish) terrorists for over a year. They were under intensive surveillance the entire time and never had any chance of pulling off their plans. What’s more, the investigation has probably provided us with hundreds or thousands of additional leads to keep tabs on.

I wonder: what lesson will al-Qaeda draw from this? Osama bin Laden may be a religious fanatic, but he’s not stupid, and my guess is that he’ll conclude that in a post-9/11 security environment it’s simply impossible to keep a plot this big a secret. There are too many entry points and too many ways for a single mistake to derail the whole thing.

Bin Laden may be fond of big statements, but I wonder if this failure will convince him and his compatriots to think smaller? Is our future now more likely to be full of lots of little attacks rather than the occasional big one?

Big conspiracies are very hard to keep quiet. In Europe and North America at least, stepped up law enforcement has made an elaborate Islamic terrorist plot harder than ever. Kevin’s speculation may very well be correct and if so, that is good news. It’s not that small bore terrorist attacks are a good thing, mind you, but simply that they have less shock value and are less likely to provoke the kind of mindless desire to lash out that led so many to support to absurd responses like Iraq. If this is true, perhaps we can, over time and with different leadership, deal with this threat more intelligently in the future.

The problem, of course, is talking these bloodthirsty, WWIII wingnut armageddonists down from the ledge.

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