Tribes Without Borders

by poputonian

Recently, Bubba was in Aspen and had this to say about why the US should remain in Iraq, for however long it takes:

“Once you break the eggs, you have the responsibility to make an omelet.”

I’m not sure how much he believes that versus how much he’s rationalizing for the wife’s war vote, but an omelet for a metaphor is an interesting one. A bloody interesting one, unfortunately.

From the NYT today:

In an About-Face, Sunnis Want U.S. to Remain in Iraq

As sectarian violence soars, many Sunni Arab political and religious leaders once staunchly opposed to the American presence here are now saying they need American troops to protect them from the rampages of Shiite militias and Shiite-run government forces.

The pleas from the Sunni Arab leaders have been growing in intensity since an eruption of sectarian bloodletting in February, but they have reached a new pitch in recent days as Shiite militiamen have brazenly shot dead groups of Sunni civilians in broad daylight in Baghdad and other mixed areas of central Iraq.

The Sunnis also view the Americans as a “bulwark against Iranian actions here,” a senior American diplomat said. Sunni politicians have made their viewpoints known to the Americans
through informal discussions in recent weeks.

The Sunni Arab leaders say they have no newfound love for the Americans. Many say they still sympathize with the insurgency and despise the Bush administration and the fact that the invasion has helped strengthen the power of neighboring Iran, which backs the ruling Shiite parties.

And then this from the Times Online:

What worries the rulers of Sunni Arab countries is that, as their citizens watch satellite television images of the destruction wrought by Israel on Lebanon, sympathy will grow for Hezbollah, regarded by many Arabs — Sunni and Shia alike — as the only credible political and military force willing to match words with actions by taking on the might of Israel’s military force.

Perhaps that is why President Mubarak of Egypt, who has little taste for Hezbollah, admitted yesterday that “Israel will not be victorious in the current conflict”. He said: “Israel should stop the killing of defenceless Lebanese civilians.”

RELIGIOUS DIVIDE

IRAN 89% Shia 9% Sunni

PALESTINIANS 5% Shia 90% Sunni

IRAQ 65% Shia 20% Sunni

LEBANON 40% Shia 20% Sunni

SYRIA 15% Shia 74% Sunni

So take away the artificial borders, and what are you left with?

Team Shia
Syria (military leadership)
Hezbollah
Hamas
Iran
Iraq (backed by US troops)
Team Israeli

Israel
The Bush administration ‘Murica
Joe Lieberman (waterboy)

Team Sunni

Saudi Arabia
Hamas
Iraq Insurgency (protected by US troops)
Palestine
Syria (the people)

Where do the other players fit, and exactly how does all this play out? You’ve got majorities and minorities in each jurisdiction; and the big prize is the oil. And what about bin Laden?An opinion piece in the Chicago Tribune said this a while back:

The remnants of the Sunni insurgency will flee to Saudi Arabia. There they will foment discord because the Saudi royal family did not do enough and allowed the Sunnis to be defeated in Iraq. The royal family will be overthrown in a violent revolution in Saudi Arabia led by Sunni clerics who long have chafed under the pro-Western rule of the House of Saud. The Sunni clerics will emerge as the dominant power in Saudi Arabia. Americans and all other Westerners will be killed or, at best, ejected from Saudi Arabia, which has enough native petrochemical engineers and knowledgeable oil field workers, and can find other non-Westerners to run the oil fields. No Westerner need apply.

Of course, we need not fear another attack here at home from Osama bin Laden as all this occurs, because he will have fulfilled his fatwa. The only thing bin Laden ever said he was after was to remove the Westerners from Saudi Arabia, the Land of the Holy Places. This will be done when the clerics assume control of Saudi Arabia. Bin Laden will win the war on terrorism by achieving his goals with our unwitting help.

What do you think? Is there a one percent chance?
UPDATED

UPDATE II – for Syria